AI Summary:
Tesla’s 2024 financial results were disappointing, with several key points highlighted:
- Automotive Revenues: Fell by 8% in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, totaling $19.8 billion.
- Energy and Storage Revenues: More than doubled, growing by 113% to $3 billion in Q4 2024.
- Services: Grew by 31% in Q4 2024, contributing $2.8 billion.
- Total Revenue: Increased by 2% in Q4 2024, but income fell by 23%, with an operating margin of 6.2%.
- Net Profits: Dropped by 71% to $2.3 billion in Q4 2024.
- Annual Performance: Automotive revenues decreased by 6% to $77 billion in 2024. Energy generation and storage increased by 67% to $10 billion. Services grew by 27%, bringing in $10.5 billion.
- Gross Profits: Fell by 1%, with net profits dropping by 53% to $7.1 billion for the year.
- Free Cash Flow: Decreased by 18% to $3.6 billion.
- Regulatory Credits: $2.8 billion of profit came from selling regulatory credits, not from core business activities.
- Future Predictions: Tesla expects energy storage revenues to grow by at least 50% year-over-year and aims to grow automotive sales by more than 60% in 2025.
Despite the poor financial results, Tesla’s share price increased by 103% over the same period.
If any other company dropped net profits by 71% they’d be firing their CEOs (well giving them a golden parachute to gtfo) and having some major shake ups.
The CEO is too busy playing social media edgelord. I guess when you blow up a company to the point where it will pop, you have to go into politics to change the laws to make it more profitable.
https://fortune.com/2025/01/29/tesla-shares-rally-2025-earnings-growth/
Tesla shares rally on pledge to return to growth in 2025
Continuing the bullshit from 2022, where Musk promised a typical year would have growth of 50!!
Tesla plans to launch its autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin in June
Hows that going Elron?
“This is not some far off mythical situation,” Musk said on the company’s call with analysts. “It’s literally five months away.”
So it’s been LITERALLY running for more than a half year now? Or is it still a no show, like the 7 previous years FSD should have been here?
We can do this TODAY.
He has said that so many times, on so many things, and it’s always a lie. FSD, Convoys of trucks that are cheaper than trains! Tesla being able to park. which it still can’t do reliably. And this is the very beginning of the claim that a Tesla can drive across the country (USA) to pick you up!
Did ANYONE believe his bullshit ever, do people believe he will build a manned base on Mars eventually? A base that should have been up and running I think it was 2022!!!
How is this man not in jail?
Oh right, probably much the same way Trump is not in jail. USA is an oligarchy moving towards a fascist dictatorship!!
several key points highlighted
Lists nearly a dozen items 🤣
Good.
So more than a third of their net profits come from selling credits they received from the government? Am I understanding that correctly?
They are emissions credits. Every company receives some amount of “CO2 emission credits” from the government. These allow you to emit a certain amount of carbon dioxide. If you don’t emit all the CO2 that your credits allow, you can sell those credits to other companies that need more than the government gives them.
The idea is to put a total limit on the amount of emissions in the country, while letting the market figure out where it makes most sense economically to invest in emission reduction.
Tesla makes only EV cars and so it doesn’t need all the credits a typical gasoline car company would receive. So they sell them.
Yes you are understanding that correctly. For producing EVs, they get credits from the federal government. I don’t know the exchange rate – e.g., how many EVs per credit.
Then, Tesla turns around and sells these credits to buyers, usually other companies. Companies buy these credits from Tesla to comply with regulations requiring certain environmental outcomes, and credits count towards these outcomes.
In theory this type of program incentivizes and rewards companies who invest in the technology(is) tied to these credits, in this case EVs. In practice it’s a way for other companies to comply with renewables regulations without actually doing anything to meaningfully reduce their impact and footprint (other than buying credits)
So it’s a government subsidy at no cost to the government, funded instead by other companies? That’s actually quite a neat idea.
I guess the issues arise if Tesla just pockets the subsidy without passing on the savings to savings to people buying EVs
Why is this an issue. They have their incentive to keep building and selling. As long as they’re building and selling, it doesn’t matter to the rest of us what their profit is.
If they’re building make excess profit, that’s just more opportunity for legacy manufacturers to be competitive. Capitalism 101
Right, we want EVs, Tesla gets a little boost from legacy manufacturers, so now we have a market, EVs are available. GM gets a break do it has time to design EVs, but are really annoyed at funding that bastard Elon, so have incentive to get their shit together. EVs are built a little sooner m, no one goes out of business (yet), we all win
You are. Without the EV credits, Tesla would have folded years ago.
It’s not EV credits it’s “cap and trade” carbon credits that they’re selling.
I’m aware. The collateral for the credits are EV sales, hence my shorthand.
I think it’s from Europe. Car manufacturers in Europe must sell at least n ev every year. Stellantis, that was asleep at the wheel and only has undesirable EVs that don’t sell, is paying billions to Tesla to make a fictitious alliance, so they will meet the sales target and won’t pay the fine
Value investing is basically dead, isn’t it? Am I crazy? How can you objectively evaluate a company’s value, notice it is undervalued, and then trade accordingly when price action does not even slightly track the company’s value?
It’s gambling
That’s not new to Tesla. Avoid bubble stocks. Avoid penny stocks. Buy “stodgy”
The investors are banking on Elon looting the Govt coffers into Tesla. I can’t deny the chances based on the other crap we are seeing.
Exclusive contracts at 20% mark up. Can’t wait for all police vehicles to switch over to teslas.
I’d support that: the new excuses as to why a suspect escaped would be fantastic.
“Well, I would have caught him but my car died for some reason and I couldn’t get out.”
“Well, I would have caught him but I hit a bump and half my car fell off.”
“Well, I would have caught him, but my car caught fire and killed my partner.”
“Well, I would haved caught him but it was raining so my bumper fell off and punctured my tire.”
Don’t worry, none of these would make the news.
True enough. A bet on any tech stocks right now is probably safe on that basis - but I expect they really do plan to crash the stock market at some point… It would make sense if you wanted to consolidate ownership cheaply.
That but also removing green subsidies helps Tesla as it’s further ahead than other electric car rivals. Also, less safety regulations likely brings it closer to fully autonomous driving.
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They’re also banking on Elon staying alive for the next 4y which is a risky bet given how he immediately antagonised the MAGA crowd on H1Bs.
The MAGA crowd hates just about everybody. The last time they did anything of note was the 1/6 insurrection, and that was with the help of Dear Leader.
Value investing isn’t dead. There are tons of value investors, and they aren’t the ones buying Tesla.
My point is, if this is how markets react to worsening sales and an actually insane CEO how can you trust a rational bet to pay off?
Value investors don’t invest in Tesla, so you should not expect its share price to reflect fundamentals.
But they do invest in stocks like Coca Cola and American Express, so you should expect the share prices of those companies to better reflect fundamentals.
That’s just another way of saying buyer sentiment is the only thing that matters, in which case we’re back to square one.
Pretty much the definition of bubble stocks. If you don’t want emotion driven stocks, don’t ride the hype train. There are many many more stock opportunities, most of whose value is related to actual facts
If you’re a value investor then you believe that the actual value of a company depends on its current and future earnings and the market price will tend towards the actual value in the long run.
But naturally there are other factors that also influence the market price. In fact, the whole point of value investing is to find stocks that are “underpriced”. For various reasons, they are currently priced at a discount to their actual value. Those are the stocks you should buy, and you should expect their price to increase.
Conversely, for various reasons some stocks are “overpriced”, like Tesla. You should not buy those, because you expect their price to decrease in the long run.
A corollary is that value investors expect seemingly irrational price movements like we see with Tesla. If share prices perfectly reflected fundamentals, then it would be impossible to find a “good deal”.
Right. So anyway, the market does often appear oversensitive to buzz and under-responsive to fundamentals. What’s your take on market reforms? Are there any changes you’d like to see, regulatory or otherwise?
I don’t care if the market is under responsive to fundamentals. That just means some investors are exercising poor judgment by paying too much attention to irrelevant factors. It also gives an opportunity to investors with better judgment.
Neat.
Expensive luxury cars for rich people with over 30 thousand subsidy, and they will still lose money. Credits is the new Bitcoin.
That’s ok, I’m sure a big government bailout is on the horizon for JUST the struggling, American EV auto maker, because their CEO sucked the president’s dick the best.
They have $3.6B in free cash flow. This is just a decrease from last year, which was a record, to this year, a year in which new car sales outside of China are massively down everywhere.
Also remember that Tesla owns I think just shy of 10K Bitcoins that actually allowed its numbers this quarter by $600 million. And the way Trump has his minions pulling all crypto regulations look for Tesla to exploit it to the max going forward. Maybe they’ll even buy some $TRUMP coins and announce $ELON coins for foreign entities looking to launder money destined for the White House.
Again, more reason for baby musk to cry at baby trump about how it isn’t fair and he NEEEDS American tax dollars to fight the China EV invasion.
Teslas are objectively trash. 1 out of 3 model 3s didn’t pass the mandatory inspection in Denmark 4y after purchase which results in tje cars becoming very expensive paper weights given how expensive it is to repair the modal issues. I’m amazed these data weren’t more divulged by media since they come from the Danish state.
Net Profits: Dropped by 71% to $2.3 billion in Q4 2024.
Since when 2.4 billion net profit is terrible?
“Yes, we earned billions but it’s actually less than the year before!” Dude, go out and touch some grass…
Since when 2.4 billion net profit is terrible?
Since Musk claimed in 2022 that a 50% growth per year would be normal for Tesla. And people are stupid enough to partially believe him. In January 2024 Musk promised 2024 would be a HUGE growth year, with autonomous RoboTaxi being launched in June. He claimed it’s LITERALLY only 5 months away!!!
https://fortune.com/2025/01/29/tesla-shares-rally-2025-earnings-growth/
Tesla Inc. revealed plans to begin robotaxi operations and forecast a sales recovery this year, fueling what Elon Musk predicted would be an “epic” period of growth for the electric vehicle maker.
Nothing he claimed or promised has come true. Quite the opposite.
71% drop in a single quarter is time for workers to start looking for other jobs bad. This was way before Elon’s Nazi salute so expect things to get way worse. I’d be so embarrassed if I drove a Tesla.
You just glossed right over the “dropped by 71%” bit…since when is that not terrible? That’s an incredible decrease in profits over the course of just 12 months.
“Terrible” is just for attention, but the bit of news that would have cratered any other company’s stock it that it’s down 71% YOY. Plus:
Regulatory Credits: $2.8 billion of profit came from selling regulatory credits, not from core business activities.
People in the current administration have said they plan to end these credits in the coming months. Without them in 2024 Tesla would have reported a $500million loss for the year.
You misread the sheet slightly. The total profit for the year was $7.1 billion, of which $2.8 billion was renewable energy credits. I.e. their profit would have only been $4.3 billion.
Source on the killing of credits?
Those are California ZEV credits, and other similar non USA programs.
They’re going to kill a lot of other things, but haven’t heard about that yet.
This one is paywalled, but if you hit the firefox reader mode button quick enough you can bypass BI’s content blocker.
Just on mobile now so can’t read it all, but it did get the gist across, thanks! I hadnt seen that yet.
I still think they’d have to win a lawsuit against California saying California can’t have the program?
Edit: as in I don’t think they can just scrap it like he’s scrapping other things via executive order.
every other car manufacturer would kill for a deficit of only 500 mill for the year
And every other car manufacturer has valuation multiples 12x lower than Tesla’s. Musk’s worst nightmare is investors treating Tesla like a car company. That’s why he keeps pushing on “Tesla is an AI company that makes cars, not a car company.”
Oh Yeah I completely agree, apparently everyone is super touchy with everything elon and couldn’t take the joke.
When those profits come from carbon credits which means your main activity is still wildly unsustainable over a decade after the company being founded. Tesla is a massive investor bubble and their cars are objectively trash with failure rates 3x higher than the industry’s worse. Tesla is garbage sustained by a massive collective illusion of US exceptionalism.
which means your main activity is still wildly unsustainable over a decade after the company being founded.
Oh so it is an AI company then.
When you know you’re going to get a billion dollars in credits for something, you plan your business around having those billion credits.
You sell cars cheaper, you expand faster, you try new ideas you might not have tried etc.
Tesla hasn’t needed those credits for a very long time now, but if they are there, of course they’re going to take as full advantage of the situation as they can.
If the credits had stopped around when Tesla didn’t need them anymore, I’m sure they would look very different than today, but they’d still be around and profitable.
Tesla would never exist in a capitalist system. Their business model is wholly predicated on government subsidies and carbon credits. Furthermore, the hen has come home to roost and their cars, like I linked above, are just bougie expensive paper weights sold by the biggest con man in history. If I was buying electric tomorrow, I’d even look at Volkswagen before considering a Tesla. I want my cars to last more than 4y, not try to kill me, and, I don’t like to pay extra for vapoware. If anything, the fact Tesla still exists, is testament we no longer live in a capitalist system but in an oligarchy where companies selling snake oil can still have high valuation because they are close to the
N*%i Partyparty in power. Looking at Teslas’s results and seeing the carbon credit weight on their fundamentals and looking at the speed BYD is expanding, only Authoritarianism can save them from bankruptcy already in 2025. Luckily, their CEO just helped bring about the 4th reich, so they are fine, just don’t pretend it’s because it’s a solid enterprise, it’s anything but.
It’s bad because downward trends are bad, especially when the economy is growing.
Look at it this way: suppose you have a job with a decent salary. Your supervisor calls you in and says, “Well, looks like we’re going to cut your pay next year”. You ask, “Is the company in trouble? Is everyone getting a pay cut?” And they answer, “No, the company is growing. Most people are getting raises. Not you, though.”
That’s a bad sign.
It’s bad because the company is bad and they should collapse, not continue on.
Receiving $2.4 billion is nice. But not if you had to pay $1265 billion (market cap) for the privilege.
aims to grow automotive sales by more than 60% in 2025.
I think this is being reported incorrectly in a lot of places.
They said the new vehicles they’re launching in H1 2025 will allow them to grow 60% to the 3 million capacity they have.
They did not say in 2025, but it looked like it could be interpreted as 2025 without saying it.
I think this is being reported incorrectly in a lot of places.
Elon Musk said his team expects “an epic end of year” for the company as it aims to maintain its 50% annualized growth rate.
I don’t think you are aware how crazy Musk’s promises are.
That’s from 2022. They made no such guidance for 2025 as I stated. I stand by statement that I believe people are misinterpreting what was written and it was not about 2025, simply where the new vehicles will get them at some undefined point in the future.
Tesla’s share price increased by 103% over the same period.
It’s funny when people cry about crypto being a scam when the entire “economy” is a casino based on genocide tokens.
You can’t base their company value on the stock market … you base it on how much power and influence they have over government.
And judging by the amount of stupidly arranged love affair they are having with the government … they should be very highly valued.
No, you base company value on its current and future earnings.
All that government influence is useless if people stop buying your products. And it turns out lots of people don’t want to buy products associated with Musk.
Not in this world.
People will be pushed to buy the products. Patriotism, xenophobia, lies, economic fear and tariffs, straight up government manipulation and collusion.
That’s the value Elon has, Zuck is jealous of, Tesla and the shareholders will benefit from, and the people allow.
I’m sure that Musk hopes that “people will be pushed to buy” his products.
But so far, that plan isn’t working. In fact it’s backfiring, people are running away from his products.
So they are making bank on storage and energy, but they are allowing Trump and the EPA to ruin it? Also he makes electric vehicles and Trump and Co are trying to bring back gas guzzlers and straight pipes. Hmmm. I think Elons mouth wasn’t sufficiently moist enough for trump.
