For how many years? Cuz y’all ain’t anywhere near AGI. You can’t even get generative AI to not suck compared to your competition in that market (which is a pretty low bar) lol
AGI is not in reach. We need to stop this incessant parroting from tech companies. LLMs are stochastic parrots. They guess the next word. There’s no thought or reasoning. They don’t understand inputs. They mimic human speech. They’re not presenting anything meaningful.
I feel like I have found a lone voice of sanity in a jungle of brainless fanpeople sucking up the snake oil and pretending LLMs are AI. A simple control loop is closer to AI than a stochastic parrot, as you correctly put it.
There are at least three of us.
I am worried what happens when the bubble finally pops because shit always rolls downhill and most of us are at the bottom of the hill.
Not sure if we need that particular bubble to pop for us to be drowned in a sea of shit, looking at the state of the world right now :( But silicon valley seems to be at the core of this clusterfuck, as if all the villains form there or flock there…
That undersells them slightly.
LLMs are powerful tools for generating text that looks like something. Need something rephrased in a different style? They’re good at that. Need something summarized? They can do that, too. Need a question answered? No can do.
LLMs can’t generate answers to questions. They can only generate text that looks like answers to questions. Often enough that answer is even correct, though usually suboptimal. But they’ll also happily generate complete bullshit answers and to them there’s no difference to a real answer.
They’re text transformers marketed as general problem solvers because a) the market for text transformers isn’t that big and b) general problem solvers is what AI researchers are always trying to create. They have their use cases but certainly not ones worth the kind of spending they get.
If it’s in reach working 60 hour weeks, it’s also on reach working 40 hour weeks, it will just take 1/3rd longer. ;)
Let’s be real, it’ll probably happen faster on 40 hour work weeks than 60.
lots of evidence starting to point to it’d be quicker in 32 hour weeks than 40
Let’s work 20 hour weeks then. Who wants AGI other than war pigs and billionaires?
I mean, we could get a rogue agi take over the world. It might not even be worse lmao
WarPigs by Sabbath was about the future.
Hahaha
With all the rounds of layoffs they’ve had, their remaining employees would need to be quite stupid to give a shit what this disloyal piece trash says.
“Work 50% longer weeks so you can make something that’ll both make me richer AND cost you your jobs!” is not the motivational speech he thinks it is.
Wait, are these AI boosters bragging about how close they are to building God the torture that Roko’s Basilisk is inflicting on us all?
I don’t even know what AGI is, and I read the headline as “rich disconnected from reality asshole”.
Turns out I was right.
A General ignoramus
Anyone else feel hungry?
No, but lets go get some margaritas.
Slushy the rich?
If it can be reached in 60 hour work weeks it can be reached in 40, but nah mfs should rush to get themselves replaced
If it can be reached in 60 hour work weeks, then it can be reached in 40 hour work weeks be hiring a second person.
If management isn’t willing to put the effort in of hiring the required staff, why would I want to work the job of 2 people for 1 persons pay?
IT project management doesn’t work that way, but it doesn’t matter much. 60 hour work weeks wouldn’t help, either.
So he’s saying it’s not in reach then.
That’s why I bake my cake at 2608°C for ~1,8 minutes, it just works™
You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.
Project Manager here, and where I’m from it’s common knowledge that 9 women can have a baby in a month .
Or!—hear me out—one woman whose 8 co-gestators were just laid off by someone who doesn’t understand what their job was
Burnt crust full of liquid cake. yum!
Cake brulee
Or, y’know, he could hire 50% more programmers / contractors, instead of overworking his current staff
There’s an upper limit to how many bodies you can throw at a task.
9 women won’t make a baby in one month.
But you can make an average of 1 baby a month in 9 months with 9 woman. It’s all about proper planning and budgeting over longer periods.
Yeah that’d be 9 babies
Equivalent to ~2 wobbly adults in trenchcoats for you metric users.
That wouldn’t allow him to also simultaneously pay low wages.
What if you do more with less?
He isn’t even using that head anyways, seems like some cost cutting is in order.
Then you wouldn’t need to tell people to work more hours.
lol, because if they work 40-hour weeks they might create it a couple of weeks later
Or, worse, they might actually have to hire enough people to actually do the job. Why hire 100 people with good work life balance, when you can hire 60 people that aren’t allowed to have lives or families.
60
peopleworkers that aren’t allowed to have lives or familiesI mean, that’s what the AI will be for…
Exactly that’s where it should be doubled down… if their own estimates are correct… it’s only a 6 month expense. If they really believe they are about to open the key to basically eliminating the cost of millions of workers indefinately, wouldn’t throwing thousands of workers to accomplish it faster, lead to cost savings.
Say if I wanted a machine that could make eggs indefinately forever… but to make it I had to put 100 eggs into it. why would I put one egg in a day for 8 months, instead of buying 100 eggs today.
Yeah, suddenly they’ll go from 60 hour work weeks to 0 if the AI proponents are to be believed (which you shouldn’t).
For real – ultimately it’s the dream of every billionaire to have a servile AI at their beck and call, while the rest of us can eat rocks and roam the wasteland fighting over gasoline.
This is almost too depressing to be funny.
They talk about AGI like it’s some kind of intrinsically benevolent messiah that is going to come along and free humanity of limitations rather than a product that is going to be monetised to make a few very rich people even richer
It’s a belief in Techno-Jesus that will solve all our problems so we don’t have to solve them ourselves (don’t need to do the uncomfortable things we don’t want to). Just like aliens, the singularity, etc.
Ironically the world is full of people who like to think about solutions to problems. But those in power won’t put them to solve those because it’s not part of the political game.
And somehow it will run on thin air
What if the whole earth, itself, is like, one giant supercomputer, designed to answer the ultimate question, and it’s just been running for billions of years?
