The situation is that the russian general offensive has stalled, not just in accordance with a seasonal rhythm of winter locking down mobility but more existentially for russia, key aspects of their war machine are failing.
If russia continues their offensive come spring a Lynx studded iron fist is going to smash them in the face, it will be like an exhausted marathon runner trying to get out of a fist fight with a relatively more rested, pissed off opponent. Conducting an offensive during brutal winter conditions always heavily advantages the defender for obvious reasons.
What options does that leave russia?
–> Refocus from an offensive into acts of mass terror against the Ukrainian civilian populace and push for favorable peace negotiations while Ukraine is under an oppressive terror campaign so that hostilities conclude before russia can get steamrolled by counterattack come spring.
Maybe I am wrong, but that is what I see. Given adequate support to shore up Ukraine in the near term, time is decidedly on Ukraine’s side.
Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal reported on January 16 that Russian forces have struck every power plant in Ukraine since February 2022 and have inflicted 612 total strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.[6] Shmyhal noted that problems with energy are the most severe in Kyiv City and in Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and other frontline oblasts.[7] Kyiv City Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko stated that Kyiv City only has half the electricity that it needs and called on residents to leave the city if possible.[8]
ISW continues to assess that Russia has been attempting to split Ukraine’s energy grid and create energy islands that are cut off from Ukraine’s electricity generation, deliveries, and transmission systems.[9] ISW has also observed reports that Russian forces are striking Ukraine’s energy grid in an effort to divide it into two parts along an east-west divide.[10]
Russia’s continued devastating strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure emphasizes Ukraine’s urgent need for additional air defense systems and munitions, particularly amid reports that Russia’s campaign may soon turn toward nuclear power plants in the dead of winter.