Russia isn’t going to freeze if they can’t sell gas in the short term. If you look at Russia’s overall economy, energy exports are only a small portion of it. Meanwhile, China and India will only be too happy to take over the energy trade long term, and Europe will be losing Russian energy going forward regardless of what they do now.
The winter in Europe is more or less over, and oil and gas revenues made up 60% of Russia’s exports and 40% of the federal government’s income before the war.
Building new pipelines to India and China will take time and might not even be feasible given the large distances.
Gas isn’t just used for heating, you need it for manufacturing, fertilizer and tons of other things. Russia’s exports and 40% of federal government income do not come from energy.
The power of Siberia pipeline supplies energy from fields close to China in eastern Siberia. It can not be utilized to divert gas from western Siberia that is currently send to Europe. There are literally tens of thousands of kilometers between those.
Industry demand for gas can be much easier substituted for other energy sources and/or the end products imported from other countries.
Russia isn’t going to freeze if they can’t sell gas in the short term. If you look at Russia’s overall economy, energy exports are only a small portion of it. Meanwhile, China and India will only be too happy to take over the energy trade long term, and Europe will be losing Russian energy going forward regardless of what they do now.
The winter in Europe is more or less over, and oil and gas revenues made up 60% of Russia’s exports and 40% of the federal government’s income before the war.
Building new pipelines to India and China will take time and might not even be feasible given the large distances.
Gas isn’t just used for heating, you need it for manufacturing, fertilizer and tons of other things. Russia’s exports and 40% of federal government income do not come from energy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235291/legal-entity-revenue-by-industry-in-russia/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271373/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-russia/
Russia has already built power of Siberia pipeline to China and they’re building two more as we speak.
See: https://www.nalog.gov.ru/eng/tax_statistics/rbr/ 40% is “mineral extraction tax”. I think official Russian government figures are trustworthy enough?
The power of Siberia pipeline supplies energy from fields close to China in eastern Siberia. It can not be utilized to divert gas from western Siberia that is currently send to Europe. There are literally tens of thousands of kilometers between those.
Industry demand for gas can be much easier substituted for other energy sources and/or the end products imported from other countries.