I’m curious how this will go. Still a long while until it gets warmer and especially freezing cold water can quickly become a breaking point if you’re not a very strong willed person.
Humans can survive in very cold - but the pipes in buildings cannot. They can go a few days at most before water needs to be shut off, and then everyone needs to figure out how outhouses and chamber pots work, along with carrying a bucket to where there is water…
Without protection, you can already freeze to death when it is around 10 degrees Celsius. Right now it is around 0 degrees during the day, colder at night. And it isn’t just about surviving. Go take showers that hurt your skin and make your limbs go numb for a while and it will severely affect your mental state.
Humans generally have and wear clothes. I’d expect anyone living in Transnistria to have all gear they need (including some spares) for the weather they see there and so they can just put that on and live. Those that don’t can borrow something from neighbors. Nude humans are not normal in that type of climate.
If it were this simple, then we’d not have anyone freeze to death nowadays. Either way, it goes all past my initial point anyway.
Clearly not everyone is “smart” enough to stay warm, but most people are and have the ability. Pipes are something most people won’t think about and so every time I hear about heat going out the news is filled with many reports of broken pipes and only a few deaths. (IE Texas when they had their issues a few years ago)
Especially since Transnistria can not be resupplied by Russia. Moldova has recieved some military aid from the EU as well. Ukraine also has good reasons to eliminate Russians at its border, as they do have things like radars, pose a threat to Ukraine and would make resupply easier.
Short to mid-term, the administration will keep the worst at bay with their reserves, that is, throw just enough heat into the system to stop pipes from freezing, while people will move over the border (it’s not like it’s a frontline or they’re not Moldovans) while the administration figures out a deal with Chisinau. It’s like that they can’t gas from the rest of Moldova which can get it from Romania which can get it from the wider European network, it’s just that they’re not used to paying for it. Chisinau itself has an interest in supplying Transnistria because the Moldovan electricity grid is fickle at best without the Transnistrian plant and the connections to Romania aren’t beefy enough to stabilise it. That’s a temporary limitation, though, it’s a weakness in negotiation position that Chisinau can fix quite easily.
Longer term though Transnistria’s economical situation is fucked because they’re used to that free energy and I doubt they can increase productivity etc. to still be competitive now that that’s gone. No industry, no workers (they’ll move across the border at least to work), no funds for pension payments. Thinkable is a generous amnesty for shady businesspeople (i.e. the government) in exchange for not making a stink about reintegration, probably with plenty autonomy and cleaning up the corruption with, in one way or the other, European oversight… for maybe a different reason than you think: Chisinau isn’t exactly stellar about minority politics, ask the Gagauzians, it’s mostly benign neglect, general disinterest. EU diplomats have been all over the place mediating and making sure that Chisinau actually gives a fuck, made sure EU funds also find their way into non-Romanian speaking areas, they’re bound to do the same with Transnistria.
In maybe too few words: The EU is going to put money on the table and buy the place before it Balkanises, good ole chequebook diplomacy. Hard to hate your neighbours when their friends are having the lot of you over for dinner.
