The Russian president is buying time before a ceasefire deal is struck. Will his big opportunity slip away?
Faced with the proposal of a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is doing what he does best: creative dithering. By saying that he is broadly in favour but “there are nuances” which need “painstaking research on both sides”, he is in effect delaying having to accept or reject the proposal. He may be hoping to buy time to get the best deal, but the fear in Moscow is that he will lose the opportunity altogether.
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The sequencing of events set up by trump team, getting Ukraine to agree first, benefits putin - while he delays answering he can still initiate some new offensive, but if Ukraine now makes any big surprise move that starts regaining territory, Russia can play the ‘agree to ceasefire’ card to stop it.
It’s also spring, so if the ground thaws and drains quickly, he can launch another offensive and only “get serious” about a ceasefire next fall.
Quite good analysis, well worth the read. Thanks for sharing!