- cross-posted to:
- avs@futurology.today
- cross-posted to:
- avs@futurology.today
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It will never be $30,000 or less. He did the same thing with the Model 3.
You really just can’t believe anything this guy says regarding his products.
He said $30,000 for the cybertruck too. $30,000 just seems to be his “I don’t really know the price” price.
How much does a banana cost, $30,000?
Didn’t he say full self drive was two years away at least 5 years ago?
Try 10 years
It was 12 years ago he said he would put a man on mars in 10 years.
Now now.
You can’t believe anything else he says either.
In real people years or “we will be on mars soon” years?
In “self-driving by 2016” years
Good question.
The Mars base should be started years ago according to what Musk claimed, and they should have manned flights to Mars by now. And all he has is half failed tests just to do one orbit around earth! 🤣🤣🤣For 8 years he has claimed Fully autonomous driving will be ready next year. He even claimed years ago, that a car picking you up and driving you across the country was something we can do today!
Enron Musk is a conman, he is obviously a liar, and there are people who still believe him?!
But it’s all the government’s fault for having regulations that stop him doing what he wants - he’d be on Mars by now if it wasn’t for the stupid government stopping him from poisoning a protected nature reserve and crashing rockets into people.
Don’t they understand? It’s really important to get people to mars so there is a place for rich assholes to go when the environment on earth is completely trashed beyond repair
Plan B secure survival on another planet.
Why? Because:
Plan A Is to make max profits, and don’t give a shit about the only planet that sustains human life.
Muskrat years.
if he gets over his fear of lidar and stops trying to do everything with cameras this could actually work out … so basically this isn’t going to work out.
this could actually work out
No it won’t, Elon Next year Musk has promised Fully autonomous driving next year since 2016. He has sold his cars with subscriptions for FSD for years, despite it doesn’t work. It’s even illegal to call it FSD now, so Tesla has to call it assisted FSD, which is an oxymoron.
With this move, Enron Musk will more likely ensure the continued decline of Tesla. The Cybercab most likely will not be a moneymaker, and the focus on developing it, will detract from Tesla developing much needed new EV models, for a market with increasing competition.
Tesla is far from #1 in developing autonomous driving, so the chances are very slim that they would be even close to be first to market.
AFAIK this is pretty much the current rank:
-1 Waymo (Google)
-2 Mercedes
-3 Mobil Eye
-4 GM (Cruise)
-5 Baidu
-6 TeslaPossibly Nissan-Renault (WeRide) and Nvidia can match Tesla too.
Notice that Tesla used MobilEye originally up to 2016, but MobilEye ended the partnership after a Tesla model S had a fatal crash. I suspect the irresponsible claims implementation and practices by Elon Musk were too much.
Elon Musk is insane and a con man, to believe anything he claims about the future of his companies is naive.
Because Musk has a weird obsession that everything needs to work with just cameras, and no other sensors can help. While it might work someday in the far future with proper AGI (e.g Delamain from Cyberpunk 2077), until then it’s a pretty hopeless endeavour.
The problem is computer vision has a LONG way to go before it’s truly on par with human eyesight. Musk loves to crow how cameras are sufficient since we use our eyes to drive.
The thing is, eyes have special neural circuits that detect motion. They essentially filter out unnecessary information and send just the motion details to the brain. This prevents the brain from being overloaded with every detail the eye constantly sees.
And being overloaded with everything is exactly what computer vision currently does. It’s just a stream of images that the computer must analyze completely. So it’s working exactly opposite to how the eye & brain works.
Long way, but it’s not an impossible task, as at the core the eye is nothing but a bunch of light sensors that spit out a result, we just need to figure out how to calculate that result ourselves. Motion amplification could be one solution given enough computing power to do it in real time, for example.
But we agree, safe and accurate camera based self driving isn’t going to happen in a long, long time.
I’m not sure the approach Elon Musk has to developing self driving will ever work.
From what I’ve heard about how they “teach” the AI, it probably won’t, because loading massive amounts of new data is rewarded, but there is no proper qualitative control.
Man, how did Mobil Eye not just tack an “s” on the end? The pun is right there, and it’s frankly excellent and super topical to what they’re trying to do.
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What benefit would a lidar bring that they haven’t already achieved with cameras and radar? The car not seeing where it’s going is not exactly an issue they’re having with FSD.
a lidar could tell the difference between a person on a bus billboard and a person. it brings 3d to a 2d party.
A lidar alone can’t do that. It’ll just build a 3D point cloud. You still need software to detect the individual objects in there and that’s easier said than done. So far Tesla seems to be achieving this just fine by using cameras alone. Human eyes can tell the difference between an actual person and a picture of a person too. I don’t see how this is supposed to be somethin you can’t do with just cameras.
So far Tesla seems to be achieving this just fine by using cameras alone.
Funny, last I heard, Tesla FSD has a tendency to run into motorcycles.
With lidar there would be no doubt that there is an actual object, and obviously you don’t drive into it.are the tesla cameras 3D?
No, and neither are your eyes, but you can still see the world in 3D.
You can use normal cameras to create 3D images by placing two cameras next to each other and creating a stereogram. Alternatively, you can do this with just one camera by taking a photo, moving it slightly, and then taking another photo - exactly what cameras in a moving vehicle are doing all the time. Objects closer to the camera move differently than the background. If you have a billboard with a person on it, the background in that picture moves differently relative to the person than the background behind an actual person would.
neither are your eyes
That’s a grossly misleading statement.
We definitely use 2 eyes to achieve a 3D image with depth perception.So the question is obviously whether Tesla does the same with their Camera AI for FSD.
IDK if they do, but if they do, they apparently do it poorly. Because FSD has a history of driving into things that are obviously (for a human) in front of it.
Talk about making a difficult problem (self-driving) more difficult to solve by solving another hard problem.
Just slapping on a lidar doesn’t simply solve that issue for you either. Making out individual objects from the point cloud data is equally difficult plus you’re then having to deal with cameras too because Waymo has both. I don’t see how you imagine having Lidar and cameras would be easier to deal with than just cameras.
Also. Tesla already has more or less solved this issue. FSD works just fine with cameras only and new HW4 models have radar too.
Human eyes can’t do it alone either. The brain has to process the information delivered.
What’s the conversion of Elon years to real years?
I believe it involves impossible math, like dividing by 0
I think the general rule of thumb is to shift the units of time up.
If he says 2 weeks, try 2 months. If he says 2 months, wait 2 years.
Robotaxis in 2 decades I think is actually achievable.
It’s funny that Boston Dynamic has been quite successful with their biped robot, then Tesla announce something without even a working prototype.
Then Waymo has been quite successful with their driverless taxi, then Melon announce something without even a working prototype.
I wonder what he will copy next.
He made Blastar, an original copy of Space invaders
Hopefully it’s infinity. It’s Elon Musk we’re talking about. These are 100% going to kill people (pedestrians, other drivers, riders) and animals.
1:0
What mass transit program is Musk trying to disrupt now? (As he did California’s high speed rail with the Hyperloop.)
Dumbest car design yet Elon. Congrats. Nothing says cab like a coupe design with gullwing doors.
A cab with no driver is just an incredibly expensive gender neutral toilet. I shudder to think what will be done in these if they ever exist.
Musk is installing men and women’s toilets separately, like God intended.
I agree it is an idiotic design for a cab, but I’d argue the Cybertruck is a way dumber design even by visuals alone. That thing would at least make for a half decent sports car (again, visually).
Oh. So “unveiling” doesn’t mean they have something. Just the “2 years” promise is repeated for the N’th time ;-)
Normally it’s always promised next year, so a 2 year deadline means the project is in serious trouble.
That’s true, he’s been saying 6 months or a year for Full Self Driving for almost 10 years now.
Just a reminder that reasonably minded shareholders would never take what Elon says as anything other than fluffery, and should refrain from making any financial decisions based on such fluff.
WTF? How can a CEO walk from responsibility by claiming puffery? Which is the same as admitting to lying!
In civilized countries CEO is a position of responsibility, you can’t just talk up stock or sales with false claims. The requirements for a CEO are higher than usual, exactly because everything they say can have a financial impact.
I’m pretty sure that judgement is not according to normal practices. It’s disgusting they let that pedo walk again and again.Now you know why China DiSsApPeArS so many of them.
Also known as fucking jail.
Well, the stock tanked by ~10% after the news, so yeah, shareholders don’t seem to be buying it and want more specifics.
Given Tesla’s usual build quality I feel like it’s pretty much inevitable that there are going to be an enormous amount of skull and limb injuries from those gullwing doors.
Its name is still not clear. Prior to the event, Musk referred to it as both ‘Cybercab’ and ‘Robotaxi’.
Couldn’t even decide a name and everything is 3d render. Add 3 years at least to the existing estimation. At least they didn’t have a toy rc as a representation, like their announcement of the robot.
Musk said that Cybercab is equipped with Tesla’s AI5 onboard computer and based on a visual check, it appears to only use cameras, like Tesla’s existing vehicles.
Gonna add another 1 year to it. Cybertruck didn’t even have full autopilot yet, and required the car to be babyseated. Steering-less car that only use camera for their autopilot is gonna be a disaster.
Steering-less car that only use camera for their autopilot is gonna be a disaster.
Recently found out about F9, superb content even though i don’t ride motorcycle.
A disaster using camera only for autopilot? Tesla FSD supervised has been successfully operating in consumer vehicles using cameras only for a couple years now. FSD software for the last several months has been performing phenomenally. If you take a ride in one it’s not hard at all to see how it could operate fully autonomously even within the next year.
A disaster using camera only for autopilot?
A disaster for steering-less, unsupervised autopilot car. There’s a difference.
If you take a ride in one it’s not hard at all to see how it could operate fully autonomously even within the next year.
I’ve have faith before when CGP Grey simp so much on Tesla autopilot several years ago, but that faith waned so hard after several mishap and death. Yes, it’s gonna be fully autopilot like before, but it would need to be supervised as always.
In the case of steering-less tesla, there’s no backup driver to prevent this.
Sure, I hear you, you’ve lost faith. Sounds like this happened over years which is understandable given the prolonged timelines and failed promises. What makes you think that the system will always need to be supervised? Any new technology can experience hurdles, but can you elaborate on
several mishap and deaths
? Things may happen once in a while for a completely new technology involving vehicles and driving, but for the long term it is a necessary step to develop something that can save countless more lives. Chances are, you are either currently on, or have tried a drug or medication that has lead to numerous deaths and permanent disability during its workup and development. Did you lose faith in medicine and avoid it, or did you take the drug despite the incredibly rare risk of death?
It seems that your attitude about the current situation was formed years ago. Definitely worth a second look and seeing for yourself, as the supervising driver, if you are not yet aware of the improvement and the current state of the software.
Things may happen once in a while for a completely new technology involving vehicles and driving, but for the long term it is a necessary step to develop something that can save countless more lives.
Do you know how villainous that sounds?
“some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice i’m willing to make.”
Yeah, you sounds like a villain from VHS copy of Shrek.
What makes you think that the system will always need to be supervised?
What makes you think a system doesn’t need to be supervised? What datacenter doesn’t have people readily available to make change and fix bug? What autonomous factory doesn’t have people readily available to stop the system and jump in to fix fatal error? What autonomous train system doesn’t have failsafe and purposefully build infrastructure to support the automation to be as safe as possible?
What makes you think Tesla done something so good, so brilliant that’s better than those enclosed, sandboxed environment, that it doesn’t need lidar as a failsafe? What gives Tesla special privilege to throw safety out of the window because of Melon Husk’s ego?
If you so desperately trying to save life, here’s some suggestion.
Haha, okay so this is about emotion and your predisposition to hate Elon Musk as well as your fear of new technology.
I guess we are not actually participating in conversation anymore so I will bow out.
Good luck my safety champion. Go drive manual and ensure the world always has a person watching, because people don’t get distracted…right?
Ohh so you can’t even give me a reason why i should trust something without safety rail, only talk about how safe it is right now, supervised, but didn’t elaborate on why steering-less, unsupervised system without redundant safety feature like having a lidar is okay. And i’m the emotional one and not participating. Sure bud.
Go drive manual and ensure the world always has a person watching, because people don’t get distracted…right?
What are you on about? 🤨 You talk about the topic as if everyone driving a Tesla or Melon Husk have the intention to share the technology with every car maker.
It’s interesting to see someone so upset that someone consider safety when driving a 5,000+ lb vehicle.
Usually, people who say “this is about emotion” in a debate or argument are the ones acting fully on their emotions. Oh no, someone is emotional about not wanting to get killed by a tech bro texting or sleeping while their car poorly “drives” them! The horror!
“successfully”
Last time I drove one and tried it, it tried to ram me into the next lane over on a medium curve. It’s not great.
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You know what would have been even more useful is a 28k model 2. This show was a scam.
I’ve heard this one before… Musk has proven himself an untrustworthy bad faith actor who lies constantly about many things, especially self-driving Teslas.
Now he’s a right-wing loon because he thinks they will let him get away with fraud. He acts like he’s on a speed run to ruin his own credibility.
Coming in 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, oh whatever. In the future Ketamine Karen will introduce a new scam / con / road safety hazard!
Johnny cab hopes you enjoyed the ride
So they didn’t unveil it…
At tesla its not an unveiling until musk puts a brick through it
