EV sales continue to rise, but the last year of headlines falsely stating otherwise would leave you thinking they haven’t. After about full year of these lies, it would be nice for journalists to stop pushing this false narrative that they could find the truth behind by simply looking up a single number for once.
Here’s what’s actually happening: Over the course of the last year or so, sales of battery electric vehicles, while continuing to grow, have posted lower year-over-year percentage growth rates than they had in previous years.
This alone is not particularly remarkable – it is inevitable that any growing product or category will show slower percentage growth rates as sales rise, particularly one that has been growing at such a fast rate for so long.
In some recent years, we’ve even seen year-over-year doublings in EV market share (though one of those was 2020->2021, which was anomalous). To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible – after 3 years of doubling market share from 2023’s 18% number, EVs would account for more than 100% of the global automotive market, which cannot happen.
Instead of the perpetual 50% CAGR that had been optimistically expected, we are seeing growth rates this year of ~10% in advanced economies, and higher in economies with lower EV penetration (+40% in “rest of world” beyond US/EU/China). Notably, this ~10% growth rate is higher than the above Norway example, which nobody would consider a “slump” at 94% market share.
It’s also clear that EV sales growth rates are being held back in the short term by Tesla, which has heretofore been the global leader in EV sales. Tesla actually has seen a year-over-year reduction in sales in recent quarters – likely at least partially due to chaotic leadership at the wayward EV leader – as buyers have been drawn to other brands, while most of which have seen significant increases in EV sales.
Got a PHEV for our family recently, wanted to go full EV but our region just doesn’t have enough charging stations available yet.
While going over the paperwork for the financing, the paperwork guy was talking about how the car company keeps pushing them to order EVs for their lot but they keep refusing. They don’t want to sell EVs because they think people don’t want them, because they think it just “won’t ever work” - so now I think that there may be other car dealers like that who are holding back what options consumers may have in there area. I had to drive 100 miles to buy the PHEV I wanted, none nearby.
Until they make electric vehicles that need as much maintenance and repairs as ICEs car dealers will of course oppose them.
We got a Toyota bz4x (we got a very good deal on it, and I wouldn’t recommend it unless you also get a good deal), and the official maintenance schedule is ridiculous and clearly unnecessary. Every 5k miles, you’re intended to take it to the dealer to make sure the coolant is topped off, the wheel nuts are on tight, and the floor mats are in place. That’s about it. And it’ll pop up a “Maintenance Required” warning on the dash to tell you, and it stays there until you get it done.
Every 5k miles, you’re intended to take it to the dealer to make sure the coolant is topped off, the wheel nuts are on tight
I have 2 EVs (A Hyundai Kona and a BYD Seal), both don’t check the battery coolant until 60,000 kilometers - either toyota doesn’t trust their battery system or your dealer is taking you for a ride
It’s official from Toyota’s maintenance schedule. They’re pretty obviously dumbing up things for dealerships, yes.
Everything on that list is needed in ICE cars as well - don’t let them change the oil though, 5kmiles for oil changes is far too short and actually harmful to the engine (your least engine wear is around 8k miles on modern oils)
That information is also wrong. Your oil should be changed when it needs it. Almost every car I owned cooked the oil by 4000 miles… and only the Corolla could stretch to 7000. Full synthetic on every vehicle. Frequent oil changes only hurt your wallet, not the engine.
This is even more important on GDI and forced induction engines (my last two), which cook the oil faster due to the higher compression and temperatures the engines run at. When the oil is cooked, the additive package is broken down and the oil doesn’t do the cool stuff (cleaning the engine, thickening when hot so it still lubricates) that keeps the engine happy. Also sludge.
For GDI, you need to regularly (before 12,000 miles) clean the intake valves, since the fuel systen does not. That’ll hurt the engine more.
Not much difference. You still need to rotate the tires and such. The engine is complex but generally doesn’t need much maintenance other than oil changes.
Brakes may last the life of the EV (we were already seeing this with hybrids). Not only is there no engine oil, but there’s also no transmission oil, no spark plugs, no catalytic converter, and coolant needs are far reduced. Batteries already coming out of manufacturers are significantly better than what’s going in actual EVs on sale. That should make the heavier weight (more tire wear) go away.
There’s a whole engine life support system that just goes away. It all adds up to much reduced lifetime costs. Especially if you do 90% of your charging at home.
Now, if we could get manufactures to make EVs as actual small cars instead of luxury SUVs, then we’d really see cost reductions. Hell, not even particularly small; a Toyota Corolla isn’t that small, but manufactures seem to think it is. The few options on the market for this (Mini Cooper SE, Nissan Leaf) are lackluster.
Now, if we could get manufactures to make EVs as actual small cars instead of luxury SUVs, then we’d really see cost reductions.
OMG this so hard. My wife and I have wanted an EV for years but we wanted something that apparently makes us bat shit crazy: a newer EV luxury hatchback that didn’t cost $100k+ and had at least 300 miles of actual range. Not an SUV, a truck, or a crossover. Just a fucking nice hatchback since we only have one vehicle, I spend 10+ hours a week commuting in it, my employer provides free charging, and we take frequent road trips with our two big stupid dogs. Options ranged from the Model S to the… Model S. Yep, that’s it. Only one and it’s from the crazy shit bag’s company.
So we bought a used Model S, so as not to give that rotten fuck stick any money, and don’t pay for any premium services. Still, come on auto manufacturers! I’d have bought a Toyota/Lexus or Lucid (who are also run by awful people) if there were options, but there aren’t.
The new Mini SE should hopefully be an option here, but Mini needs to stop dragging their feet about selling the new version in the US.
We just got out first EV: an Acura ZDX. Nowhere near $100k, but not on the cheap side either. It is a quality, smaller SUV with lots of comfort features and a 280 mile range for the model we got. And the acceleration is nuts.
We’ve been charging it at home with the included 35A 220V charger and it has been fantastic. It is amazing how good it feels to not stop at gas stations.
Only thing we’ve lost is the ability to road trip. We still have another car we can use if we really needed to go distances but the charging infrastructure seems to be thin in this area.
On the small car side, there are more and more popping up in the US. They have ranges around the 150 mark which just won’t cut it. I get that it is a weight thing with the batteries but unless you’re in an area that has rapid charging at most places you stop you’re not gonna make it. I think that’s why you’re seeing so many midsize and large SUVs turned EV - the math just works better to give the range people are looking for.
I agree that size needs to come down. But in many parts of the US, the commute is a little too long for the small EVs with the current battery and charging technology.
I hope we get there though. Grew up in the 80s and miss the small, efficient, hot hatch world we had then.
100mi is plenty for the commutes of the vast majority of the population, and it’s not hard to reach that. The Mini SE does in its OG form. Although I also think people should consider e-bikes for commutes like that.
100mi is not plenty. Generally range is speced as best case. By the time you take off some because you are charging to 80% every day, and not running to empty, then take off more because you have to drive on the coldest winter day and your 100 miles is realistically only 40-50 or usable range. That will barely get you to work and back and doesn’t allow for running any lunch errands.
I ride my ebike to work, but my commute is a lot shorter than average and if my trip was much longer it wouldn’t be reasonable ebike range (I hate driving so I’d bike anyway, but at that point I’m a fanatic and it is no longer something I’d expect everyone to do). I still keep a ICE truck around for trips that are longer than I’d ride my bike (no transit where I live), it is rarely used but still a needed backup
Mean distance traveled per day is 40.7 miles, and median is 31.6 miles. Another study shows 12 mile commute distances on average. Yes, 100 mi is plenty for the vast majority of American commutes.
I’m speaking from experience. Even in the very coldest Wisconsin winter days, a Mini SE gets my wife to work and back. Those extreme cold days are maybe two to three days out of the whole year, and it’s still enough. Granted, it is very close and there’s no room for errands. It’s also only two to three days out of the year, and we can plan for it.
Even that is assuming places don’t just close down entirely on days like that. Which I think they should, but that’s a different topic.
By the time you take off some because you are charging to 80% every day
You’re not. It doesn’t work that way. Even on 120V charging, an overnight charge is usually good enough. Our 240V charger handles it no problem.
@frezik @bluGill Being pedantic: there’s still engine oil and transmission oil, but because (almost always, except in some performance BEVs) those are fixed and sealed, they practically do not require changing. Unless the manufacturer is unsure (some Hyundai EVs) or there’s a fault and repairs required taking the assembly apart.
I’m really confused by the comparison between Corolla and Leaf - here on the European side, Leaf is the bigger car. https://www.carsized.com/en/cars/compare/nissan-leaf-2017-5-door-hatchback-vs-toyota-corolla-2018-5-door-hatchback/
I’m using “small” as meaning “not a goddamn SUV”. Leaf is more of a hatchback.
@frezik Wait. You lot get a Corolla that isn’t a hatchback? 😅
Yes, you typically get it as a sedan in the US.
https://www.toyota.com/corolla/
But there is a hatchback version.
The brakes on my wife’s ICE minivan have more than 100k mile, while that isn’t life of the car it is close enough. Transmission oil may or may not be sealed but that is a manufacturs choice - many people never change their transmission oil and get by with it. There is nothing about a ICE vs EV that makes a difference there (the torque of an EV puts the advantage to the ICE in this case!) Spark plugs, transmission oil, and coolant are generally speced for 100k mile change intervals - by then the car is owned by someone who isn’t using the dealer for the work and so no difference to the dealer. Catalytic converter is generally a life of the car item (unless stolen - a real problem but EV parts can be stole too) - when it wears out the car has enough miles on it that the owner will just put tape over the check engine light (or if there are inspections find a way to cheat)
Yes there is a difference in maintenance costs. However as an owner of an ICE I can confidently state most of the maintenance costs are for parts that are common to both.
I’m planning on buying an EV, but so far they don’t sell an EV minivan (the Pacifica hybrid gets pathetic range on battery so I won’t count it) in the US. Charge at home would save me a lot of money. However it is the charge at home responsible for the savings, not the maintenance costs.
The brakes on my wife’s ICE minivan have more than 100k mile
Pressing “X” to doubt. Pads do not last that long on a typical ICE car. Rotors can, but not pads.
by then the car is owned by someone who isn’t using the dealer for the work and so no difference to the dealer.
So there’s a cost, but we just fob it off on the next poor bastard. Or more likely, the market for used cars has factored this in, so you’re selling it for less. Money in your pocket over time ends up the same, but by a different route.
That’s a good insight, car dealers are a huge part of the market, and they exert a lot of pressure against change. They also fund and support a lot of local Republican candidates, historically, a fact not entirely unrelated.
Car dealers are very much part of the problem. They’re very reluctant to let go of their comfy little racket.
Someone should tell them they may get more business from EVs. Sure, EVs need less maintenance: which affects all the commodity items you could go anywhere for. However Tesla is vertically integrated and I believe all manufacturers are more so than with ICE. Without commodity parts, there is a higher percentage of service calls that can only be done at a dealer.
Someone should tell them they may get more business from EVs.
Outside of the pandemic, car dealers generally don’t make much money on new cars. Used cars and service is the money maker.
Looking at about 57k new cars in our system the average profit based on cost - price is -1,300. And that’s not factoring in other costs like paying the sales people their commission.
Again, maybe Teslas are different, but mine has almost no commodity part that a generic service center is likely to have. While I hope it will require less maintenance, essentially all of it is likely at the dealer.
I believe independent garages will be the biggest loser of reduced service frequency, not dealers
Independent garages will have to adapt. Battery swaps/rebuilds will become more and more of a thing. Same with repairing all of the computers in these vehicles. Basically all EVs for sale are iPhones on wheels, and that tech does not age gracefully. (just look at the early Model S)
Currently shops of typically filled with “boomer” techs who just blindly hate technology and won’t touch it. But its adapt or die. And battery swaps on non Tesla EVs are typically really easy to do. Tesla being Tesla purposefully makes it difficult to do.
Tesla is still a rare niche. If they were more common (and had more in common with other cars) the third parties would start marking parts for things like shocks and brakes that wear out. You have to take BMWs to dealers most of the time as well as it is hard to find replacement parts elsewhere.
The big auto makers have enough volume that anything they do will get third parties making parts for service. The part may not start out as a commodity but it will become one if it needs replacement often. Thought many parts are not made in house and the company that makes them often sells at a slight loss to the OEM because replacement parts will be so profitable (an accounting loss - they invest so much in jigs and automation that sales just to the OEM won’t pay for them, if you ignore those setup costs they still make money)
Got a PHEV for our family recently, wanted to go full EV but our region just doesn’t have enough charging stations available yet.
I’ve been a very happy Chevy Volt customer for this reason. 90% of the time, I get around on my 50 mile charge just fine. But if I’m going on a road trip, I get another 400 miles out of my 7 gallon tank.
Shame Chevy gave up on the Volt as soon as the hybrid credits ran out. It seems like the industry is just chasing government subsidies, whether they’re turning out Bush Era Hummers or Obama Era Priuses.
The Prius came out in 98/99 before Bush was even president (not to mention Obama).
Not just dealers. My brother is an engineer at a legacy car manufacturer and keeps giving me reasons why EVs will never work. If engineering doesn’t want to build EVs because it’ll never work, how will there be a compelling product to sell?
I just did a 1,200 mile road trip in my EV that did seem to affect his attitude though
I work with a ton of engineers and their profession/title doesn’t mean they’re immune from being behind the times, misinformed, or just plain wrong about stuff they work with.
Engineers are other car manufactures have made them work. His management is already taking notice and is trying to figure out how to respond.
part of me wonders if they think they can just ‘wait this whole Eeee-veee thing out’.
fucking idiots
Thank you this royally pisses me off whenever I hear it from Ford or Chevy. They could be selling like hotcakes but they much rather go back to their cash cows and the oil industry to milk.
They could be selling like hotcakes but they much rather go back to their cash cows and the oil industry to milk.
Have we seen that Ford and Chevy are able to manufacture EVs at a profit? Chevy Bolt reportdely lost $9k per vehicle sold. Ford has reported they’ve lost as much as $40k per vehicle sold on Mach e.
It is absolutely possible to create profitable EVs, but so far Ford and Chevy don’t seem to be able to.
It’s not that they can’t manufacture for a price that can be profitable, it’s that they haven’t yet sold enough to make back their development costs. Most of that “loss” is simply not scaling enough. Every car model has a huge upfront cost of development and manufacturing costs that need to be made back. However if you allocate that over a small number of vehicles, of course it will never happen. They b need to get serious about selling them
It’s not that they can’t manufacture for a price that can be profitable, it’s that they haven’t yet sold enough to make back their development costs.
Thats one possibility, but not the only one. Its possible that the design of the vehicles are too labor intensive so irrespective of scale they will always be unprofitable. We have good indications this may exist for Mach E. It was designed and built very quickly as a “skunkworks” style product to respond to Model Y market dominance (and giant profit margins). Ford used almost exclusively off-the-shelf parts to get it out the door quickly. The consequence to this is lots and lots of labor to use parts designed for another application in a different one. Its all doable and it works to build a product, but potentially at the cost of profitability. At product launch the Mach E was an MSRP of $54,700. Today that same vehicle MSRP is $43,995. Thats a huge amount of margin to give back that would eat up many small production improvements since launch.
Ford was certainly one of the companies claiming they can out-mass-produce Tesla, that they already knew how to build cars at scale with a profit and quality. Was that all FUD?
That makes sense but assumes you stop there. Why would you? They have a vehicle they can sell and it’s been out four years: they need to be well on the way to redesigning it and its factory, rather than pushing back on selling it
They have a vehicle they can sell and it’s been out four years: they need to be well on the way to redesigning it and its factory, rather than pushing back on selling it
Only if it can be profitable now, or if its built into the plan to lose money on EV sales to learn the market and refine the product.
It sounds like Ford is focusing on the short term, and they’re not able to make a profitable EV.
When was the last time Ford or Chevy had a car that sold like hotcakes, EV or otherwise? Ford hasn’t even made a car in several years and focuses solely on SUVs/CUVs and trucks. Their only bread and butter is their passenger trucks, which aren’t even being threatened by EVs.
BYD Shark plug in hybrid has entered the chat.
Well until a few years ago when they decided to stop making cars (except the Mustang), they made the best selling vehicle in the world, the F150 and the best selling car, the Ford Focus. That’s why I didn’t understand why they made that decision. The same decision pretty much killed Isuzu in the US. Must not have made them much money, I guess.
To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible
Capitalists and cancer cells disagree
Hard to get excited about Electric Vehicles when the major players are Elon fucking Musk and China, contributing to humanity crushing fascism either way, blech. I care where my support and my money goes.
How about Hyundai? They have some excellent EVs for a good price.
The Koreans and the French of all people have some good options it seems.
People suggested some other foreign manufacturers that were not China, but if you wanted something made in the US, Rivian is an option, albeit an expensive one.
Tesla is the most American made car. My Model S was built in Fremont CA.
Rivians are built in Normal, IL.
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In a system which demands eternal growth slowing growth is called a slump.
I paid a visit to Ford’s Henry Ford Museum and did the factory tour. It’s an absolutely great museum full of industrial progress throughout the ages, however it does mostly center on the American side of things. Highly recommend a visit, it will take you all day to see everything. Anyway, the factory tour is definitely Ford Propaganda, especially for the F150, and they do discuss the EV market which is massively smaller than the ICE truck market, however every single EV truck is sold before it leaves the factory. There’s no inventory sitting around. I imagine that’s partly due to production line issues like materials availability, but nonetheless the demand is there for EV, even trucks.
Imagine what they’d be without Biden’s 100% tariff on affordable Chinese EVs.
Probably a decline as all other manufacturers selling in the US go out of business and hundreds of thousands of union jobs are lost, only for China to then jack up their prices.
Id like to remind everyone the feds bailed out fucking cruise ships
You know those things that are sooooo valuable to the economy. Pretty sure if they had a hard time adjusting the feds would give them a fat fucking vault of cash.
Do you mean changing the law so that cruises launching in the US to other US ports (like many Alaskan trips) could still operate? The law that was originally meant to keep Puerto Rico down?
Because cruise lines were not bailed out by the US government financially.
Also, BTW, an Alaskan cruise is one of the better reasons to take a cruise. Absolutely stunning views.
Id like to remind everyone the feds bailed out fucking cruise ships
Are you sure about that?
Also would you support our tax dollars going to cruise ships and/or people like Elon Musk just so that you can buy a brand new car? Why does everyone suddenly think new cars should be affordable for everyone in the country? I make decent money and always buy used because buying new is a losing proposition most of the time.
China isn’t trying to save the environment or stop climate change. This is 100% about undercutting the market and putting everyone else out of business so that everyone is reliant on them. They do this all the time in numerous industries. This is the same tactic that US companies like Walmart and Disney do to destroy their competitors too. People like you either refuse to see through the ploy or haven’t experienced it enough times to see it coming.
Are you just talking about the US? In the EU, the sale of fully electric cars has actually gone down (as a % of market share), mostly to the gain of hybrids. See for example https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/0829/1467243-european-car-sales/
Petrol and diesel cars have dropped more. The main problem is Germany where they’ve dropped the subsidies from one day to the next late last year and have since been discussing bringing them back. Like that is going to stimulate sales…
I just assumed people are buying less Teslas, as everyone seems to have finally noticed what a POS they are.
And yet they’re still in many ways the best EVs available.
I think people are buying fewer Teslas because
- the CEO can’t stop being an ass
- too many buy for styling, but they focus more on functional changes. Each model has continuous improvement yet doesn’t change appearance
Yeah, sure, that’s why. https://www.tesladeaths.com/
Edit: Don’t stop downvoting, but for comparison please go here and pull down “Midsize” & “Luxury Cars”: https://www.iihs.org/ratings/driver-death-rates-by-make-and-model
There is one model in that size worse than the Tesla 3, so it’s got that going for it! Wonder why the 2WD version is so much safer.
I wonder how that compares to other manufacturers. I’ve seen comments starting that teslas get in more accidents per mile driven compared to other brands but haven’t seen raw numbers.
There’s not enough transparency or detail.
- As far as I can find, there was a Lending Tree study saying they got into accidents more frequently, but I didn’t see any details on how they determined that.
- Tesla data is more detailed and automated, saying there are many fewer accidents
A criticism of Tesla’s data is an accident is determined by airbags so is not directly comparable to other numbers. A criticism of Lending Tree is the data compiling reports to insurers/lenders but Teslas are expensive to repair so more likely to claim.
Either way, Teslas are 5 star safety rated so very good at protecting their occupants
I don’t know why they’re categorizing the 3 in “luxury cars” but if you look at the actual numbers it’s about the same as a Camry, which is in line with what I’d expect.
Did someone make a “f150 deaths”, or a “honda civic deaths” website? I’d be curious to compare because 555 deaths in 4.5 million cars sold sounds to me like a pretty good number, actually; it’s around 0.01% of cars.
Looking at the StatsCan website, looks like there were 1.5 million cars sold in 2022 and 1931 fatalities, which would bring the industry average to around 0.12% of cars, about 10x worse. Of course, not only new cars were involved in crashes, so I’m not entirely sure it’s an accurate comparison, but from what I can tell, your sources aren’t actually making the points you think they’re making.
If you want to create an argument against Tesla this is not the way to do it, they are by far THE SAFEST car on the market despite their full autopilot failure.
People should be outraged by the fact that there was not a single recorded death from a car accident until Tesla came onto the scene.
But GM gave us 100,000!
They definitely are way down, in Germany.
Bought a Tesla last week and I love it. Quality is flawless (unlike what the media likes to write about) and it’s saving me a ton of cash by not buying fuel. Charging at home is so damned simple and convenient. I can’t imagine every driving an ICE vehicle.
One of the key reasons traditional manufacturers were reluctant to build EVs is because of the batteries needed and their lack of ability to make these themselves. A battery on a brand new EV can be half or more of the total cost to build the car, who wants to pay somebody else, who is going to expect to make a profit on the batteries they sell, half the cost of the build to a competitor or third party for any true mass market car? You cannot start to compete on price or volume till you make your own batteries and cut out that profit of the third party.
When it became clear that the Traditional Manufacturers could no longer avoid ramping up EV production as Tesla and latter China/Korea were stealing their future market they have shit the bed, begging for subsidies to build their own battery factories and recruiting staff with experience. Its going to take a few years before these factories come on line, but till then you will see them pushing things like PHEVs and halo EVs like the F150 that they do not plan in selling in large volumes in favor of ICE that they make the engine.
There is also an element of the speed of development of EVs, they were clearly caught out how fast the market moved with efficiency and thus range. As an example, the early VW group EVs were awful, at least a generation behind the best from Korea or Tesla. The latest ID7 and A6 etrons show that VW have acknowledged their mistake, the saloons made on that platform (the SUVs on the same platform just cannot compete due to worse drag and weight) seem to be aiming around 4 miles per kwh, which is extremely impressive for such large saloons.
Improving efficiency is the key to reducing battery sizes, which reduces weight, which further improves efficiency, but most importantly reduces the cost of EVs. We need to move away from 100kwh+ batteries, they are a crutch for inefficient, bricks of SUVs that are far too large and heavy. Manufacturers just up the battery size to counter their poor design decisions, which leads to disappointment when you realize you struggling to get 2 miles per kwh from your 2.5 ton EV9 and its only doing low 200s out of a 100kwh battery.
