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Pretty much all of it. The claims it’s making regarding the progress of the invasion are pure speculation. Nobody aside from the Russians knows what the actual plan was. However, it’s pretty clear that taking cities was not actually the goal with the focus of the combat being in Donbas against the main Ukrainian army. So far the strategy Russia is using appears to be the same that they successfully used in Chechnya and Syria. They destroy the main fighting force, surround the cities, and negotiate a surrender, then put a friendly government in power.
The video says that Russia isolated itself from the world, but it’s pretty clear that nothing of the sort has happened in practice. In fact, it’s the west that appears to be increasingly isolated from its allies. A great example of this was the Saudis refusing to take Biden’s calls. Both India and China are firmly supporting Russia while most countries in the world aren’t doing any sort of sanctions against Russia. This even includes western countries who are quickly realizing that the kinds of sanctions they originally proposed would be ruinous to them.
One thing to keep in mind is that if sanctions don’t work immediately, there’s very little chance they will work later on as the economy starts adapting. We’ve also never seen sanctions achieve regime change anywhere in the world. North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela being prime examples of countries under heavy sanctions. The only thing this does is hurt regular people in the country.
Russia has been preparing its economy for the sanctions for a while now, and public opinion there generally favors the war. The west was completely unprepared and made a lot of rash decisions that are already being regretted. The economic blow back in the west will create far more civil unrest than there will be in Russia precisely due to lack of preparation. As the recession deepens there will be a lot of public anger, and we’re already starting to see protests over food and energy prices in Europe. This will only get worse going forward.
The question isn’t whether Russia will be hit hard by the sanctions, but whether it will be hit harder than the west and whether people in Russia are more willing to put up with that than people in the west are.
All that said, I don’t support the invasion and it’s deeply regrettable that it happened. However, I think it’s important to have a realistic assessment of how things are actually going.
It favored the war when the war started. But how long will they favor it when their rubles are worthless and their sons don’t come home? It took heavy propaganda and a media blackout to maintain public opinion like this, but the Russian people are going to catch on in greater numbers.
Public opinion solidified with over 70% in support of the war. Western decision to cancel all things Russian basically sealed the deal on that. When it was just the sanctions, people could understand it. Now the mask fell off and Russians see how much the west hates them as people. This perfectly plays into the narrative that the war was self defence against NATO expansion. Meanwhile, there’s absolutely no evidence of the rouble becoming worthless.
It took heavy propaganda to keep western public believing that the war is going poorly for Russia, and that the sanctions will crash Russian economy. However, as people are starting to become increasingly unable to afford necessities, I wonder what the reaction in the west will be. I suspect western people are going to catch on in greater numbers.
Ruble is rebounding in a big way, practically where it was at the beginning of the conflict 1 month ago (this is rubles per usd)
Expect it to go even higher with today’s announcement that gas purchases from Europe must be done in Ruble. That, or gas prices will skyrocket in Europe and fuel more pandemonium there.
Where are you getting that it’s down 50%? That’s incorrect. It was around 75 rubles per dollar pre-conflict. Now it’s 100 rubles. Which isn’t too close, but it’s closer than the peak a couple a couple weeks ago where it would take 140 rubles to get a dollar.
yeah i will definitely be interesting to see what India does here. They buy most of there military equipment form Russia apparently
The question isn’t whether Russia will be hit hard by the sanctions, but whether it will be hit harder than the west and whether people in Russia are more willing to put up with that than people in the west are.
I think sanctions in the future will become increasing hard to implement due to crypto. i suspect that might be the cause recent price nice of cryptos but I don’t know if we are there yet. There is some evidence of Russia oligarch using crypto as a means for wealth preservation but major business are still using the legacy banking system which can be easy attached, just look at whats happening with swift.
I really can’t see India decoupling from Russia both because they’re economically and militarily tied to Russia, but also because they see themselves as a sovereign country and are offended by US telling them what to do.
In terms of crypto, I definitely don’t think it operates anywhere close to the scale that state banks operate on. That said, Russia did say that they would accept bitcoin as a form of payment.
Pretty much all of it. The claims it’s making regarding the progress of the invasion are pure speculation. Nobody aside from the Russians knows what the actual plan was. However, it’s pretty clear that taking cities was not actually the goal with the focus of the combat being in Donbas against the main Ukrainian army. So far the strategy Russia is using appears to be the same that they successfully used in Chechnya and Syria. They destroy the main fighting force, surround the cities, and negotiate a surrender, then put a friendly government in power.
The video says that Russia isolated itself from the world, but it’s pretty clear that nothing of the sort has happened in practice. In fact, it’s the west that appears to be increasingly isolated from its allies. A great example of this was the Saudis refusing to take Biden’s calls. Both India and China are firmly supporting Russia while most countries in the world aren’t doing any sort of sanctions against Russia. This even includes western countries who are quickly realizing that the kinds of sanctions they originally proposed would be ruinous to them.
One thing to keep in mind is that if sanctions don’t work immediately, there’s very little chance they will work later on as the economy starts adapting. We’ve also never seen sanctions achieve regime change anywhere in the world. North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela being prime examples of countries under heavy sanctions. The only thing this does is hurt regular people in the country.
Russia has been preparing its economy for the sanctions for a while now, and public opinion there generally favors the war. The west was completely unprepared and made a lot of rash decisions that are already being regretted. The economic blow back in the west will create far more civil unrest than there will be in Russia precisely due to lack of preparation. As the recession deepens there will be a lot of public anger, and we’re already starting to see protests over food and energy prices in Europe. This will only get worse going forward.
The question isn’t whether Russia will be hit hard by the sanctions, but whether it will be hit harder than the west and whether people in Russia are more willing to put up with that than people in the west are.
All that said, I don’t support the invasion and it’s deeply regrettable that it happened. However, I think it’s important to have a realistic assessment of how things are actually going.
It favored the war when the war started. But how long will they favor it when their rubles are worthless and their sons don’t come home? It took heavy propaganda and a media blackout to maintain public opinion like this, but the Russian people are going to catch on in greater numbers.
Public opinion solidified with over 70% in support of the war. Western decision to cancel all things Russian basically sealed the deal on that. When it was just the sanctions, people could understand it. Now the mask fell off and Russians see how much the west hates them as people. This perfectly plays into the narrative that the war was self defence against NATO expansion. Meanwhile, there’s absolutely no evidence of the rouble becoming worthless.
It took heavy propaganda to keep western public believing that the war is going poorly for Russia, and that the sanctions will crash Russian economy. However, as people are starting to become increasingly unable to afford necessities, I wonder what the reaction in the west will be. I suspect western people are going to catch on in greater numbers.
Ruble is rebounding in a big way, practically where it was at the beginning of the conflict 1 month ago (this is rubles per usd)
Expect it to go even higher with today’s announcement that gas purchases from Europe must be done in Ruble. That, or gas prices will skyrocket in Europe and fuel more pandemonium there.
move that to a one year time line and you will see a much more sobering picture
I don’t see what you mean?
i mean the ruble is still down almost 50% from the start of war compared to dollars https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=RUB&To=USD so its pretty far from recovered
Where are you getting that it’s down 50%? That’s incorrect. It was around 75 rubles per dollar pre-conflict. Now it’s 100 rubles. Which isn’t too close, but it’s closer than the peak a couple a couple weeks ago where it would take 140 rubles to get a dollar.
i stand corrected
yeah i will definitely be interesting to see what India does here. They buy most of there military equipment form Russia apparently
I think sanctions in the future will become increasing hard to implement due to crypto. i suspect that might be the cause recent price nice of cryptos but I don’t know if we are there yet. There is some evidence of Russia oligarch using crypto as a means for wealth preservation but major business are still using the legacy banking system which can be easy attached, just look at whats happening with swift.
I really can’t see India decoupling from Russia both because they’re economically and militarily tied to Russia, but also because they see themselves as a sovereign country and are offended by US telling them what to do.
In terms of crypto, I definitely don’t think it operates anywhere close to the scale that state banks operate on. That said, Russia did say that they would accept bitcoin as a form of payment.