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Joined kolme vuotta sitten
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Cake day: touko 15, 2019

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The European central bank has forecast that it plans on upping rates soon. Its rates are also effectively much higher than Turkey’s, once you factor inflation in.


Erdogan’s economic policy goes beyond just bad into the realm of phenomenally stupid. This is a guy who was cutting interest rates to fight inflation, the equivalent of fighting a fire with gasoline. Europe will have its struggles, but they’re not horribly mismanaged like Turkey.


Absolutely. It’s like with housing, in an ideal system there will be some vacant housing but everyone will be housed. There is going to be some give to the system as people move around between houses.

Similarly, people moving between jobs might have a period of unemployment, and that’s okay. What is vital is to have a safety net that lets them more or less maintain their standard of living so they’re not dissuaded from reaching for better opportunities. A weak or non-existent safety net hands power to employers because employees may not have the option of leaving a bad job to seek out something better.


Have you seen videos from Mariupol after it was taken?

Have you seen pictures of Mariupol before and after it was bombed to shit? Russia did that, there is no escaping that reality.

According to you people like Chomsky are Russian propagandists.

The fuck? I disagree with Chomsky, but I never called him a propagandist. Patrick Lancaster and his ilk are propagandists.


It reminds me a little of WW2 and returning black soldiers in the South especially. Black soldiers had fought and died to protect their country. Returning veterans had gotten a taste of being treated like heroes (or just basic human beings), but returned to a world of being treated like trash. One theory goes that the civil rights movement of the 50’s was spurred on by the resentment of racist treatment and the reminder of how much better things could be.


Everything you’ve been claiming about the conflict has turned out to be false

Remember when you were claiming that it wouldn’t happen at all? And I was more cautious, saying that it was too early to call it either way? Then Russia invaded.

The facts are that western powers ran a coup in Ukraine that set the ground for the current events.

No, they really didn’t. I don’t care how many times people post that one transcript, the 2014 overthrow was carried out by Ukrainians. The only public record shows that foreign governments had relatively minor involvement on the periphery.

majority of the people in eastern Ukraine do not support western backed regime

You sure? I know the Russian backed separatists claim this, but is this actually known to be true? Hard to tell when there’s a combination of an occupying force and separatists that were armed by that force. Also, some of those cities in eastern Ukraine that you’re saying don’t support the current government were just getting the shit beat out of them by Russia. Assuming that their support is entirely up to their ethnicity and native language seems a little presumptuous.

This regime never had a chance to win a war against Russia, and all western support for the regime is simply prolonging the agony for people in Ukraine. Useful idiots, such as yourself, are helping prolong western public support for this nightmare.

Well I want Russia to get hurt bad by this war. If they’re not, they’re just going to come back for more and more and more as evidenced by the weak response to Georgia and Crimea. I want this to be this generation’s Afghanistan, their US-Vietnam War. A war that makes a whole generation a little more hesitant to waltz across their neighbor’s borders and start murdering.

Maybe you should take your own advice and ask where you yourself are being manipulated, and why the war is not turning out the way you thought it would.

I don’t know how this war will come out. You frequently claim how it’s going to inevitably going to come out, but I’ve shied away from that. There are too many variables. And I know full well that people are trying to manipulate me, and sometimes I make mistakes.


This is what the people there say

That can be faked easily.

This is what the people there say, and that’s why we’re not seeing any actual resistance to LPR and DPR forces taking cities the way we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan when US occupied those countries.

I’m sure Mariupol welcomed the Russians as liberators! Well, what’s left of it.

Has it ever occurred to you that you might be a victim of propaganda?

I try to keep a reasonable level of skepticism. But I’m certainly not trusting an easily faked YouTube video from someone who is obviously a propagandist spouting Russian talking points.


I think you’ve been watching so much Russian-aligned propaganda about Ukraine that you’ve hit the Dunning-Kruger effect. You’re more than willing to call other people idiots, but it sounds like you’ve been feeding for hours at the trough of outright Russian propaganda. Not news media with some bias, literal government propaganda. All governments involved do it to some degree, but it doesn’t mean you have to accept it. At this point it seems like you’re not even considering whether you’re being manipulated, as long as the manipulator is aligned with Russia.


People in the east consider themselves to be occupied

Now who’s assuming?

The interview is just the people telling what they think. Imagine thinking that’s propaganda as opposed to whatever you’re guzzling.

Has it ever occurred to you that those interviews can be faked? His Russian handlers tell him to head down a road, and lo and behold there is someone there to tell you about all the Ukrainian atrocities! I mean, sure it’s just a Russian soldier or separatist militia member that they stuck some civilian clothes on, but those are just details.


You assume that out of ignorance.

Then explain to me why Ukrainians would like being invaded and bombed relentlessly. Please, I’m all ears.

Here’s what people as they themselves put it.

That guy is embedded with the the Russia army and goes on Infowars. He is simply an untrustworthy source, a propagandist.

Edit: More from this video.

What it very plainly says is that the west lacks industrial capacity for the kind of war that Russia is currently waging.

The West currently lacks that specific industrial capacity. It could definitely shift production to counter Russia, especially as part of a longer war.


Your claim that Ukrainians outside of Donbass are uniformly pro regime is not based in reality.

I claimed that it’s probable that the average Ukrainian, whose life has been put into turmoil by Russia’s invasion, may not have many warm fuzzy feelings towards the government attacking their country and may be in favor joining NATO to prevent future attacks.

Especially places like Odessa or Kharkov.

Those cities have been bombed extensively by Russia as part of the invasion. Even if there was once much interest in those cities to chart a more pro-Russia course, I doubt there is much anymore. Just because a city has primarily Russian speakers doesn’t mean they will love Russia when Russia rains bombs on their homes.

I strongly encourage you to read this report from the Royal United Services Institute in UK that clearly explains why NATO cannot offer any real protection to countries.

It’s a good report, but it doesn’t say that. It just says that for a longer haul war, the US especially is going to need to change its strategy around ammunition


What am I wrong about here? I’ve got a few basic facts that I’m using to make guesses that would explain how this outcome would be arrived at.


Artillery is not an exact science, if you believe the crap of surgical hit, you are very naive. Sure there are progress but you can still have 100m of error rate.

This wasn’t 100m of inaccuracy. Russia shot artillery into Kyiv, into civilian residential areas. They shot into an area with a shopping mall, then lied about it being “nearly empty”.

What is the sample?

If you’ll refer to my initial comment, I was expressing some doubt about this. I’m guessing the Donbass and Crimea were not included.


It wouldn’t be out of line if we assume the Donbass region was not included. After all, the average Ukrainian has had their life turned upside down by the Russian invasion and occupation. Like with Sweden and Finland, it would be natural to be attracted to inclusion in a treaty organization that would provide protection going forward.

Regarding the opposition, even the supposedly “pro-Russian” parties had turned pretty anti-Russia once the invasion started. I’m still mystified why there isn’t more pressure from the nations backing the Ukrainian government to return to the principals of a liberal democracy. This is no time to resort to authoritarianism.


A blog post that previews the report is here: https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2022-crypto-crime-report-preview-russia-ransomware-money-laundering/

At this point, I’m not doing any more of the leg work for you. There’s plenty of information out there on this. It’s widely discussed in the security community. Articles, reports, and the like are not hard to find at all.



Thank you for that piece of information. I almost forgot. Now read the damn article, it cites non-governmental sources.



Are you doubting this based on expertise or knee jerk suspicion of anything unflattering of Russia?


And a minimal effort search would bring up dozens of articles about how pervasive this Russian tactic is. I’m not even that dialed into the security community and I’ve heard plenty about it.





Idea pitch: Carbon pricing with anti-volatility
The idea is to have the least painful way to introduce a carbon tax. As the current elevated prices fall, a carbon tax would be introduced. The main issue with carbon taxes historically is that they're rather unpopular. They need a spoon full of sugar to make the medicine go down. Therefore this one would have a couple of extra features. One has been explored elsewhere, having the revenue rebated back to taxpayers. The other feature I haven't seen. It would throttle the tax around a rolling multiyear average of prices from some sort of index. Prices go up, tax goes down. Prices go down, tax goes back up to match. In this way, the traditionally volatile energy market gets a built-in buffer. A fund created by the carbon tax could be used to pay out the rebate at a steady rate instead of sporadically. How does this sound? Hair brained? Hopeless? Or maybe - just maybe - it has a chance of being workable?
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Blocking on instance level?
Is there a way to block posts from an instance from showing up on my post feed? Lemmygrad has gotten to be a bit much over the past week or so. I know I can block communities, but I would rather not play wack a mole there.
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This thread does a good rundown of why the whole pathogen biolab allegation is just a bunch disinformation. Like with many such claims, it's appealing at first blush, but someone with more knowledge can spot that it's misleading.
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