The anti-Islam, euroskeptic radical Geert Wilders is projected to be the shock winner of the Dutch election.
In a dramatic result that will stun European politics, his Freedom Party (PVV) is set to win around 35 of the 150 seats in parliament — more than double the number it secured in the 2021 election, according to exit polls.
Frans Timmermans’ Labour-Green alliance is forecast to take second place, winning 25 seats — a big jump from its current 17. Dilan Yeşilgöz, outgoing premier Mark Rutte’s successor as head of the center-right VVD, suffered heavy losses and is on course to take 24 seats, 10 fewer than before, according to the updated exit poll by Ipsos for national broadcaster NOS.
A win for Wilders will put the Netherlands on track — potentially — for a dramatic shift in direction, after Rutte’s four consecutive centrist governments. The question now, though, is whether any other parties are willing to join Wilders to form a coalition. Despite emerging as the largest party, he will lack an overall majority in parliament.
What the fuck is happening to the world?
Far right extremists claim easy solutions to complex problems. With housing etc pricea going through the roof it’s easy to demonize foreigners etc.
Look what happened in Germany with hyper inflation.
If you look at the projections for muslims living throughout Europe over the next 30 years with current levels of immigration you can see there will be a Muslim majority in many parts of Europe. I’m not saying that’s a problem necessarily but it will be a big cultural shift if that takes place. There is some concern that many muslims have followed their holy doctrine in moving towards sharia law. I’m not trying to be islamaphopic it’s just quite difficult to discern between the muslims who want to live in peace and live a western lifestyle and those who want to live under sharia law and those who want to live under some hybrid system and what that might look like. These are the outcomes whether you want to accept it or not. Yes it’s complex and difficult.
This is the first generation with worse prospects than the previous one. Wealth inequality is growing, and robber barons are back. Climate change is making any prospects even worse.
Combine that with a communication revolution (social media, to be exact) which allows anyone to pretty much target anyone else with any message they feel like, means disinformation pushing narratives is everywhere. And not to forget, there people in charge of these platforms are among the aforementioned robber barons.
It’s easy to offer simple solutions to these problems and push disinformation to people who don’t have the knowledge, time or energy to debunk everything and think deeply about things, since they’re busy slaving away to put food on their tables, struggling to build a future, and looking for solutions. And simple answers give people a sense of control or explanation over their difficult situation.
It’s why I have completely removed myself from every social media platform there is, except this one and I’m only on here intermittently.
True, but the generation that tends to vote far right is the boomer generation - it’s the generation that failed to pass on rising prosperity and gave us the climate crisis.
If you look at elections in europe, it’s pretty consistently the 35-45 year old demographic that votes right the most. Every age group votes right and it’s not like it’s only boomers, with the exception of young voters <30 (and women) which do vote significantly more left
E. G. Netherlands https://www.statista.com/chart/8178/pvv-largest-party-but-not-among-youth/
Do we know why? For Americans, I can see the nihilism of the grunge era affecting the latter part of that group, and possibly having a lasting effect towards political compass.
But I can’t think of a reason of the top of my head for European millennials driving so deep into that side of politics.
I think it’s for many different reasons, but a bit the same as everywhere. Some are protest votes due to a distrust in government in general, then 35-45 is the age most get kids and in contrast to their parents generation they live in apartments, not single family homes, as houses aren’t affordable. Then there’s the general widening of the wealth gap and the populists pretending they have a solution and blaming it on immigration (while themselves being a big reason for the problem in the first place…), while left parties often get tricked into reacting to right rhetoric, letting the right dictate the discussion. Old people are less affected by the wealth gap, young people don’t have kids so they don’t notice yet. And in it’s also a question of mobilizing ones base, the right parties get a ton of money for ads and so on, they are good at stirring up fears of existential threats(which is ironic given the real existential threat of climate change), while a lot of people are disillusioned, so middle aged left voters are less likely to actually go vote whereas more right voters do. Of course <30 voters worry more about climate change and are more motivated to go vote, since they’ll be the most affected by its effects.
I’m sure there’s many more reasons but these are the first ones I can think of off the top of my head.
It seems you are more equipped to deal with the disinformation on social media than most of us. Although I understand the desire to step away from the fray, a mind like yours is sorely needed in times like this.
That is not true unfortunately. I tend to be very left wing socially - economically I’m more left of center - and that was reflected on my social media as well - either pushing me towards more radical content or stoking anger with more radical right wing content to get me riled up and coming back for more.
I ended up with a growing hatred and emnity for a growing number of people and “groups”, and black and white thinking. Even though I was aware that I was being manipulated, it was still impossible to sit on a high horse above the fray.
It’s quite easy to manipulate human minds, even ones that are careful and aware. We can all be manipulated. It’s why advertising works, for example.
The only thing to do really is to not play that game. Avoid advertising, avoid other content curators deciding what you get to see and telling you how to reason, etc… realise that most people are empathetic, that most people want what’s best, and those that are radical have been manipulated to be that way, sadly.
Good question. But honestly you just got to look at history for the answer. Far-right extremism often do better when it’s hard times like we have right now.
Amongst other things: Russia.
https://www.amazon.com/Putins-Trolls-Frontlines-Russias-Information/dp/1632461293
And in this specific case, it’s literally Russia: https://nltimes.nl/2023/10/19/leaked-documents-show-connections-pvv-russia – this is often the case for far-right European parties. Russia supports them quite significantly. This is one of the thousand reasons why Russia needs to be stopped and seriously discouraged in Ukraine. I have some hope that now that Putin has played his hand, his influence in European parties will start to diminish. But it’s not looking good yet.
Geert Wilders is a 100% israeli puppet. At 17 years old Geert went to live as an illegal occupier for 2 years in the West-Bank for the israelis. He has visited israel at least 40 times the last 25 years, more than once a year.
A quote from an NOS article about Geert Wilders life as a colonist: (Dutch article)
Look up what Stephen harper is president of right now.
I don’t think this is Russia. Its ex Canadian PM
I’m sure if you look deep enough you’ll even see Russian links there. Harper is a vile weasel.
If you mean IDU, that’s a more moderate center-right coalition. Conservative, sure, but not far-right populist like PPV.
Russia isn’t supporting those center-right parties (to my knowledge), but rather the far-right populists.
The right has a cohesive strategy for getting and keeping an animated base, while the libs are focusing on maintaining a status quo that people hate and are creating voter apathy.
Just to be clear liberal doesn’t really make that much sense in Europe as it dose in the US. Liberals are mostly on the right side of politics while in the US it’s on the left. So if you where to talk with European people then they would talk about the left or the right. In my country for instance the only party that is truly liberal is all the way to the right. The left is socialists mostly and while the US have some socialists the democrats in the US is much more to the right than most Europe “left” would be.
Right, you do have some politicians in the US like Bernie Sanders and Alexandra Occasio-Cortes who would be considered Social Democrats in Europe. But yeah, US politics are really opaque due to the two-party system. There are a lot of politicians in the Democratic party who would be considered center-right market liberals in Europe.
From what I see, the center left politicians in Europe are still liberals supporting capitalism. More of a social democracy which is for sure better than the individualistic libertarian ideas being promoted in the states, but capitalist none the less. Still not fully addressing the ethics of the population as a whole.
Also, I do realize that America isn’t the center of the world, but it definitely has serious impact on what the people of the world see as the trajectory of the future. Especially if (and this is pure speculation) if the right is able to create fox style echo chambers in other countries using the narrative of following the American superpower.
In this election, the “libs” are the VVD who, as a socialist (GL/PvdA) I’d hate to say but, are the most right wing reasonable party. You cannot project American political discourse and concepts on Dutch politics.
When I say “libs” I don’t mean 1 party, just any party that express liberal values. Which, based on the Wikipedia page, would include PvdA and everyone to VVD. Bernie and AOC are also libs.
We are unfortunately in one of those moments in history where far right authoritarianism is troublingly in vogue.
Capitalism makes living harder, populist fascism fools voters, cycle repeats
It’s going fascist.
Everyone thinks that Russia became hostile with war in Ukraine. They were already fighting war with the West for years and it is bringing fruits. It is the war of disinformation and unlike the traditional hot war, they are very good at it and it is now bringing fruits.
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Other parties haven’t taken any called for measures when it comes to immigration, now far-right is reaping the benefits.
It’s pretty shit but sorta expected if you just stubbornly avoid addressing the issues people have.
Populism never addresses the issues people have, it preys on their insecurity and creates issues.
Even doing lip service seems to be working better than what the other parties have done
Social media, mostly.
They’ll probably have 16 parties getting seats and many refuse to work with him. He’s not going to be prime minister or anything.
Sure, but that only works up to a certain point. When they are ignored, voters will get even more annoyed and he might grow towards next election and become impossible to ignore. The same is happening with Vlaams Belang in Vlaanderen.
I like your optimism, but VVD and NSC are probably going to try to work with Wilders.
Won’t get them a majority in the senate, with BBB they have 30 of the required 38 seats there.
They don’t need one. It would be convenient, but it’s not required
Without it, things will get quite difficult. They’d have only 30 out of the 38 needed for a majority which would be very low, particularly without obvious partners who wouldn’t rather watch Wilders fail. It’s not required to become PM sure, but he’s going to have to do something if he wants to get anything actually passed.
Does he actually want things passed though? Can’t have people change their mind on your policy if you do nothing
He’s been in the game quite long, well before the current common brand of right-wing populism. He actually has plans he wants to execute, and he’s definitely going to try and do it.
Bist du faschistisch?
Please don’t confuse The Netherlands with Germany. In NL they speak Dutch (“Netherlandish”), in DE they speak Deutsch (German).
Confusing? Yes. But it is what it is.
(And don’t get me started about Holland vs. The Netherlands :) )
Sorry, it’s from Rick and Morty, when he’s going through different dimensions and every one of them is fascist.
Internet + deliberate misinformation (lies) = broken democracy.
Most people don’t understand politics, and think “guy talking louder than everyone is my favorite guy!”
Remember that one of the notable reasons W won his first presidency is that a lot of people thought he’d be a cool guy to have a beer with.
Unpopular take incoming: The Left is principally made up of people who are Agreeable, so they want to help others rather than win resources over others. What happened is the Left are unable to draw lines and limits on certain issues for fear of causing pain. The end result is this alienates a lot of swing voters, often in the working classes.
The Left has always been a haven of the middle classes. They become so preoccupied with calling working class people bigots / stupid, that they forget that the working classes often feel the impact of politics more strongly and are more incentivised to vote.
This is an issue with the left deviating from reason and reality due to an increasing population of younger left wing supporters who have barely spent any time in physical reality, being the most online generation yet. Some of the physical realities that affect the largely natively white working class population in western european countries simply do not occur to these middle class, left wing people.
Migrant workers competing for jobs and class (being told they are better than you and being passed over on jobs by them), eco friendly and green societal initiatives making things often less functional and more expensive, etc etc.
One could blame the ruling classes for some of these elements but truth be told, the bottom half of the middle classes start feeling these effects, they start to see a different perspective too.
Politics has always, and will always follow Economics.
The left isn’t calling working class people bigots. We call people bigots who exhibit xenophobic behavior. If they are working class, they’re being a working class bigot. The working class needs solidarity, not right wing propaganda.
Xenophobia is irrational fear. There is plenty of rational fears, particularly for working class people who see their existence challenged on a daily basis.
What the general narrative suggests (and what you seem to be approaching here too) is disingenuously characterising much of this fear as one of superiority - or in other words predatory, superior views and behaviour. It’s nearly always fear of the unknown, or of threats, whatever those might be.
Well said. You can look at the current situation in Canada, where our government has been driving excessive immigration levels despite the fact that we have a shortage of almost all infrastructure at this point. They have tried to call down any opposition to this policy as racist or xenophobic.
However most Canadians respect the fact that “we are all immigrants” and have no issues with immigrants. And we are tired of being called xenophobic just because we want to slow the rate of immigration until we can rebuild our housing stock, medical system, transportation, and actually create some good paying jobs for people.
So people like myself who are working/middle class and traditionally aligned with the left as it is supposed to support unions and labour solidarity, are now discarding the left as it has discarded us. A continuous push to devalue labour by bringing more people than are needed to the country is anti-worker, it’s “left” but it’s the wrong kind of left! We have no party that represents the working Canadian anymore.
So the issue is that we haven’t given neoliberals enough after giving them everything?
Could you unpack this a bit for discussions sake
When the going gets tough the tough get going… Economic crisis, inflation, unemployment, keep choking people with taxes “for welfare” and this is the result. It was politicians and economists who should have studied history and learned before making all this happen, now we can’t blame lay people.
Right it’s welfare making people poor, not corporations pocketing nearly all economic growth for the last few decades.
Nobody ask how all the wealth has trickled up to a handful of techno-billionaires at the very top!