• 4 Posts
  • 83 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: June 6th, 2023

help-circle
  • I’m too early in the game to know this well, but I feel the lack of mod support. This feels like a game that would really thrive with community support, but they have no plans on supporting mods or open sourcing it. They are currently working on a new project that they haven’t elaborated on yet.

    Still, I got this game for $14 and if I can find some people to play with I’m absolutely going to get my money’s worth - this kind of game just doesn’t exist with this level of depth. I love the technical detail of how the ship works on and how the systems interact with each other.







  • isosphere@beehaw.orgtoUnixporn@lemmy.ml[Hyprland] My first rice!
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    14
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    1 year ago

    It’s “rice” because it’s asian; it’s a derogatory term used towards people and their cars. When I was younger, this term was used against asian drivers and their asian cars - and it was not a compliment.

    Looking at Urban Dictionary I see no mention of this anti-asian side of it, but it was there when I was growing up. Maybe others can chime in with their experience, I imagine it wasn’t the same everywhere.

    Not implying the people using it here are being racist, I don’t think they are aware of what I’m recalling here.





  • This is not answering your question (I can’t argue for my current SWR, it’s the trinity study minus a random fudge factor), but I’ve implemented an idea that I think others would benefit from.

    I’ve been tracking my current withdrawal rate through time, based on my periodic calculation of baseline expenses. I suppose I could use actual expenses, but that’s remarkably volatile, so instead I take the 6 month average of recurring costs.

    The benefit is a nice time series graph I can watch. I can plot a horizontal line for my current expected return on capital, and another for my safe withdrawal rate.

    The net result is a lot of information condensed nicely. You can see at a glance if you’re trending towards safety, or away from it.







  • I’m not going to get excited about any “deceleration”; this is still an increase. And due to “base effects”,1 we’re comparing against high values. Until it’s steeply negative it’s nothing to get excited about.

    1 year over year measures compare now versus a year ago. if a year ago was unusually high, you’d expect this comparison to revert to the mean over time as the window shifts forward; it could have more to do with what you’re comparing to (a year ago) than what’s happening today




  • isosphere@beehaw.orgOPtoFinance@beehaw.orgThe Wicked Problem of Trading
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    5
    ·
    edit-2
    1 year ago

    I spent a lot of time learning from traders, and learning statistics. Most folks in trading use misleading profit and loss metrics to see if something is worth trading. I used the same kind of backtests, but I layered Bayesian inferencing on top of it.

    I studied machine learning with Andrew Ng’s courses, studied deep learning with Ian Goodfellow’s book. Most importantly I took a course run by university professor and researcher in anthropology, Richard McElreath. I did my best to faithfully apply what I learned, though I am sure I strayed from academic standards.

    At that point I had been doing this for years, for countless hours. It was my only hobby, and I dive hard into hobbies.

    I tried my damnedest to be predictive every which way. I kept meticulous records to avoid fooling myself. Sometimes my models fooled me, and sometimes they combined with luck for my records to fool me. Long term, it’s pretty clear. No evidence of any edge, ever, for any approach taken.

    At the end of all of this toil and labour, I have the skills I learned along the way: statistical skepticism, a hands-on understanding of fat tails, an appreciation for the experience of randomness and the highs and lows of gambling. I think that’s worth a lot - but I also think you can learn that a lot easier some other way.

    I have done very well with buy and hold, it’s fantastic. There’s some bullshit in how you assign your portfolio - what proportions of what exposures - but its very profitable and exceptionally low stress compared to trading. It definitely has a better Sharpe/sortino/ulcer metric.