Do you think that Prigozhin’s current march to Moscow (which sounds like it is over already) will start any wave of change in Russia? I am curious about what chain of events we are likely to see based on the new events in the last 24 hours. Will the weakness exposed by Prigozhin tip the scales for other groups actions? Will the different Russian liberation groups use this opportunity to speed up their overall goals? Will the ongoing sabotage missions between different groups cause even more critical infrastructure to collapse. I am curious about what you think?
I hadn’t thought of the replacing-Lukashenko angle before; that makes a lot of sense. His march on Moskva could have been a show of strength to discourage rebellion in Belarus when he takes over
That’s just a one possibility. I’ve been following the situation all day and at the end, to me from my armchair general position, it seems like that the whole thing was way too easy. Just take a nice roadtrip with friends from the frontlines into practically borders of Moscow and get a free pass to do whatever you wish, regardless of FSB and other three letter agencies at Russia.
So, my (very much amateur) take on this is that either it was preplanned or the Russia is in real problems and way over their heads to really do anything else than migitiate the threat with whatever they have available. If the latter is really the case then it could be interesting if Kazachstan and Ubekiztan really hold their support for Putin, Erdogan of course included, or if they take their chance with independce.
Either way the following weeks should be pretty interesting.
It does seem to have played out too smoothly and fast, I don’t know about the Belarus angle nor the footage allegedly showing Wagners camp bombed out, but the actual ‘coup’ feels off