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I was feeling pessimistic about this report. If jobs stay strong, and inflation keeps easing we might be seeing that soft landing I was doubtful of.
I think that’s inflation cut in half from last year’s peak now, so we’re definitely getting there. It really does seem like the soft landing is a likely outcome at this point, we mostly keep getting closer to it.
Until the commercial real estate market crashes in ~5-10 months. Remember that all the things coming down now lag rates by ~6-12 months. So we are seeing the effect of rates near the end of '22 when they were in the 3% range.
