- cross-posted to:
- collapse@lemm.ee
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
- cross-posted to:
- collapse@lemm.ee
Worryingly, the observed energy imbalance is rising much faster than expected, reaching a level twice that predicted by climate models, having more than doubled within just two decades.
Abstract
Global warming results from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which upset the delicate balance between the incoming sunlight, and the reflected and emitted radiation from Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe. Despite the fundamental role of the energy imbalance in regulating the climate system, as known to humanity for more than two centuries, our capacity to observe it is rapidly deteriorating as satellites are being decommissioned.
Plain Language Summary
Global warming is caused by the imbalance between the incoming radiation from the Sun and the reflected and outgoing infrared radiation from the Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe according the the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Observations from space of the energy imbalance shows that it is rising much faster than expected, and in 2023 it reached values two times higher than the best estimate from IPCC. We argue that we must strive to better understand this fundamental change in Earth’s climate state, and ensure our capacity to monitor it in the future.
At some point you would expect 2X imbalance to be 2X temperature change rate. The climate system has all kinds of hysteresis, but eventually the system has to find a new setpoint and jump to it.
We gotta vote about this guys!

