Summary via https://bsky.app/profile/frhoffmann.bsky.social/post/3llny3bzhrc25
New piece out in @foreignaffairs.com by @marksbell.bsky.social and me.
We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma.
In short, European elites aim to uphold three objectives: credible and effective deterrence against Russia, nuclear nonproliferation, and strategic stability (understood as low incentives for nuclear first use).
But without the U.S. nuclear arsenal, choosing any two makes the third impossible.
This means Europe faces unavoidable trade-offs in the years ahead.
In navigating this trilemma, we argue that Europe should choose credible and effective deterrence against Russia and nuclear nonproliferation.
We are aware that reneging on strategic stability and accepting a degree of strategic instability in Europe-Russian relations entails assuming genuine nuclear risks.
The alternatives, however, would be even more dangerous.
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This is Foreign Affairs published so this piece was directed to European elites and having a peek at that discussion is worthy of posting. It’s also ridiculous to downvote unless you want to know less about your own reality.
Authors suggest that elites should prioritise nuclear nonproliferation as a strategy that benefits them the most (or trades the least amount of risk). Ukraines interests don’t necessarily align with this and it wasn’t supposed to be advice for Eastern Europeans.
Not sure where this idea that I endorse what I post comes from, you’d think I endorse earthquakes and technofeudalism.
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