With Reform neck and neck with Labour, not a chance. The UK’s first past the post system means every lost vote for Labour is a vote for Reform. Labour voters aren’t going to risk a Reform government. Of course, the next election is many years away, and much can happen in that time.
They have an far left contingent but they don’t have much leverage right now. I think the reality is that the UK’s high spending, high historical debt, and already high taxes don’t leave much room for pet projects and populist spending. If they increase the deficit they risk credit downgrades and much higher cost of debt servicing, exacerbating their issues during their tenure. If they increases taxes even more, they suppress what little economic growth they’re likely to see during their tenure, and risk recessions. Their only realistic path here is very centrist: rein in spending to focus more on infrastructure and R&D. Especially the energy grid, which is fucked. If they plunge the country into recession or make things even worse, they guarantee a Reform government in 2029.
There is a ray of sunshine. I’m seeing really promising legislative changes re planning and zoning. Removing a lot of the red tape and disallowing councils from blocking new developments will allow far more housing to be built. This is arguably the single biggest quality of life issue for Brits. Bringing rent and the cost of ownership down could cement Labour as the next winners.
For anyone who is dependent on their disability benefit to not be homeless, starving, cold, or a combination of all three, they are making it a lot worse.
There are ways, but they’d be immensely unpopular with the corporate overlords, and thus, aren’t an option.
God forbid they close loopholes to stop the exporting of profits to overseas entities, for example. Along with all the other ridiculous tax avoidance wheezes multinationals use to obfuscate their way out of paying their fair share, we could cover the welfare budget twice over and have change left.
Is there any chance of a rebellion within Labour over this?
With Reform neck and neck with Labour, not a chance. The UK’s first past the post system means every lost vote for Labour is a vote for Reform. Labour voters aren’t going to risk a Reform government. Of course, the next election is many years away, and much can happen in that time.
Good point. I guess there’s no strong unified opposition within Labour on this doing anything at the moment?
They have an far left contingent but they don’t have much leverage right now. I think the reality is that the UK’s high spending, high historical debt, and already high taxes don’t leave much room for pet projects and populist spending. If they increase the deficit they risk credit downgrades and much higher cost of debt servicing, exacerbating their issues during their tenure. If they increases taxes even more, they suppress what little economic growth they’re likely to see during their tenure, and risk recessions. Their only realistic path here is very centrist: rein in spending to focus more on infrastructure and R&D. Especially the energy grid, which is fucked. If they plunge the country into recession or make things even worse, they guarantee a Reform government in 2029.
There is a ray of sunshine. I’m seeing really promising legislative changes re planning and zoning. Removing a lot of the red tape and disallowing councils from blocking new developments will allow far more housing to be built. This is arguably the single biggest quality of life issue for Brits. Bringing rent and the cost of ownership down could cement Labour as the next winners.
For anyone who is dependent on their disability benefit to not be homeless, starving, cold, or a combination of all three, they are making it a lot worse.
Let’s gloss over that though, shall we?
Thank you for that information. I guess there isn’t the simple solution of “tax the rich”, because it’s more nuanced than that?
So long as that red tape being removed isn’t going to negatively affect the environment or anything like that?
There are ways, but they’d be immensely unpopular with the corporate overlords, and thus, aren’t an option.
God forbid they close loopholes to stop the exporting of profits to overseas entities, for example. Along with all the other ridiculous tax avoidance wheezes multinationals use to obfuscate their way out of paying their fair share, we could cover the welfare budget twice over and have change left.