What does the currency’s collapse mean for Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war?
  • Buffalox@lemmy.world
    12·
    1 year ago

    The Russian economy is beginning to crack.

    The Ruble has a steeply declining trajectory, much like the beginning of the war, and the Russian national bank just increased interest rates from 8,5 to 12%.

    The Russian economy is shrinking, 2 years combined it will be as much as 5% which is a lot, even if it doesn’t sound like it. That shrinkage is internal and measured in the declining Ruble, so the real shrinkage is worse. Combine that with military spending for the first 6 months of a whopping 37% of the Russian state expenditure, twice what they budgettet. So we have an overstimulated economy, where the state is pumping huge amounts of money, and the economy is still shrinking!!

    Somehow it seems the consequences have been mostly held from normal citizens and consumers, apart from inflation mostly similar to what many European countries have experienced. The state has carried most of the burden.

    But the Russian economy is both overheating and declining at the same time, so when the bubble finally burst, it could be very dramatic. With a collapse of the economy, both state and financial. This will be a double dip that could collapse the Russian federation.

    Russia is basically headed in the same direction the old Soviet Union was when it collapsed.

    • awwwyissss@lemm.ee
      41·
      1 year ago

      That 5% has to come from somewhere, and so do all the additional resources diverted towards their genocidal land grab and assorted terrorism.

      The oligarchs in charge will make sure it’s not coming out of their pockets, so that leaves the already struggling serfs with the bill.

      • Buffalox@lemmy.world
        4·
        1 year ago

        You are probably right in the long run, if there is a long run. But Putin has demanded oligarchs pay their part too, to ease the burden on the state. If they refuse they are practically volunteering to the defenestration program. Russia is pulling on all resources in an attempt to make this work. You can even say they’ve done it very skillfully, but that doesn’t change that Putin has put Russia on a road to complete collapse. I bet for many it’s a matter of survival now.