The fundamental problem is that the war in Ukraine makes a coup or a revolution more likely. We already saw Wagner march on Moscow after all. That will get worse with the economy in trouble amking paying the forces harder and living conditions falling, making revolutions more likely. The oligarchs are already paying a massive price for the war, but do not seem to revolte. Complaining about Putin increases fall risk by quite a bit in Russia. So any sane actor would hide it for as long as possible, to then go hard at Putin with the goal of full removal. If Putin can no forsee it, then the average dude in the West has no chance at all.