I don’t think this very hard to predict. Everyone is going to slowly move into 5.5 edition over the next few years as they start new campaigns since there are good quality of life increases in this edition in the exact same way no one plays 3.0 but only 3.5. Hasbro is going to try some stupid digital only / VTT which is going to be pushed really hard. Its going to be a mild success but Roll20 and cheaper / freer VTTs still exist it won’t make as much money as expected. Hasbro is going to then make some A.I. DM which is going to be awful despite spending millions in development and marketing. No one will want to use it because it defeats the whole purpose of DnD and will be too expensive. There will then be some crisis about the DnD brand when Hasbro can’t make enough money off of it but it won’t affect people who have physical books who will continue to play the same way they always have. I am calling it now
I just wonder if maybe another big stumble from Hasbro will cause the rise of a new system.
Paizo is relatively tiny compared to D&D and especially compared to Hasbro, but Pathfinder gained a pretty sizeable following mostly from word of mouth, and this is basically before social media. One of the biggest “promoters” of D&D now is Critical Role, and before the stream started their home game was a Pathfinder game. But, CR is now also streaming their own game system called Daggerheart in addition to their main D&D campaign. I have a sense that many other D&D streamers have a “plan B” game ready in case Hasbro steps over the line again.
An interesting twist to all this is that you can’t copyright rules or stat blocks. That severely limits the kinds of “moats” that Hasbro can put up to prevent competition.
Anyhow, I think you’re overall right. I know Hasbro is going to push an exclusive VTT, and it’s just a matter of time before they try to push a LLM DM.
I do think another system has a chance of becoming popular but I would guess it would be a large second after DnD with lots of splintering. I LOVE Paizo and Pathfinder. Free online searchable rules are amazing and no one plays 3.5e when pathfinder 1 exists since its just a straight upgrade. That being said both Pathfinder editions are still super crunchy, math heavy and require research to make a playable character. Its still called Mathfinder for a reasons so there is a limit to its userbase.
That being said I know there will be plenty of Plan B and other systems waiting for when DnD really messes up. You can see that with the OGL problems where tons of new content was created especially since you can’t copyright rules or stat blocks. I think the ORC will end up being a longer term stabilizing and creative force for TTRPG. But DnD will still be here because its basically a synonym for TTRPGs at this point.
I think what might be different this time is influencers. If Critical Role abandoned D&D completely, I think they’d probably stay popular and whatever system they switched to would get a lot of attention. I also think that they’d be likely to use a system that isn’t math heavy, and allows for a lot of role playing and acting.
The problem would probably be splintering. But, if a tiny company like Paizo made such a big impact on the D&D ecosystem with virtually no ad money back in the 3.5 days, just imagine what could happen today when so many D&D influencers exist. If they worked together on something, it could be a major change to the D&D ecosystem.
For sure. I think if some of the big streamers move to their own systems that would have some big blows. I haven’t used Critical Roles new systems but I assume they could get a big switch over if they push it hard
I don’t think this very hard to predict. Everyone is going to slowly move into 5.5 edition over the next few years as they start new campaigns since there are good quality of life increases in this edition in the exact same way no one plays 3.0 but only 3.5. Hasbro is going to try some stupid digital only / VTT which is going to be pushed really hard. Its going to be a mild success but Roll20 and cheaper / freer VTTs still exist it won’t make as much money as expected. Hasbro is going to then make some A.I. DM which is going to be awful despite spending millions in development and marketing. No one will want to use it because it defeats the whole purpose of DnD and will be too expensive. There will then be some crisis about the DnD brand when Hasbro can’t make enough money off of it but it won’t affect people who have physical books who will continue to play the same way they always have. I am calling it now
I just wonder if maybe another big stumble from Hasbro will cause the rise of a new system.
Paizo is relatively tiny compared to D&D and especially compared to Hasbro, but Pathfinder gained a pretty sizeable following mostly from word of mouth, and this is basically before social media. One of the biggest “promoters” of D&D now is Critical Role, and before the stream started their home game was a Pathfinder game. But, CR is now also streaming their own game system called Daggerheart in addition to their main D&D campaign. I have a sense that many other D&D streamers have a “plan B” game ready in case Hasbro steps over the line again.
An interesting twist to all this is that you can’t copyright rules or stat blocks. That severely limits the kinds of “moats” that Hasbro can put up to prevent competition.
Anyhow, I think you’re overall right. I know Hasbro is going to push an exclusive VTT, and it’s just a matter of time before they try to push a LLM DM.
I do think another system has a chance of becoming popular but I would guess it would be a large second after DnD with lots of splintering. I LOVE Paizo and Pathfinder. Free online searchable rules are amazing and no one plays 3.5e when pathfinder 1 exists since its just a straight upgrade. That being said both Pathfinder editions are still super crunchy, math heavy and require research to make a playable character. Its still called Mathfinder for a reasons so there is a limit to its userbase.
That being said I know there will be plenty of Plan B and other systems waiting for when DnD really messes up. You can see that with the OGL problems where tons of new content was created especially since you can’t copyright rules or stat blocks. I think the ORC will end up being a longer term stabilizing and creative force for TTRPG. But DnD will still be here because its basically a synonym for TTRPGs at this point.
I think what might be different this time is influencers. If Critical Role abandoned D&D completely, I think they’d probably stay popular and whatever system they switched to would get a lot of attention. I also think that they’d be likely to use a system that isn’t math heavy, and allows for a lot of role playing and acting.
The problem would probably be splintering. But, if a tiny company like Paizo made such a big impact on the D&D ecosystem with virtually no ad money back in the 3.5 days, just imagine what could happen today when so many D&D influencers exist. If they worked together on something, it could be a major change to the D&D ecosystem.
For sure. I think if some of the big streamers move to their own systems that would have some big blows. I haven’t used Critical Roles new systems but I assume they could get a big switch over if they push it hard