Nate Silver’s polling tracker now has Trump slightly favored to win (50.2%) the election. While this shift appears small, it has drawn attention because it pushes Trump just past the halfway mark in forecasts for winning the Electoral College.

Silver explains that while Trump’s rise over recent weeks is significant, and his polling model, is designed to minimize overreactions to new data to provide more accurate long-term predictions (i.e., it’s likely a “real” effect), this doesn’t in any way mean Trump “will” win, and the race remains highly competitive, especially in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which are critical to determining the outcome.

  • Socialist Mormon Satanist@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    4
    arrow-down
    12
    ·
    edit-2
    1 day ago

    What makes me think Trump will lose again is the issue of women’s rights/abortion.

    I don’t think the people most affected by that are the ones answering poll questions, so I don’t think their thoughts are being fully represented in the polls.

    • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      7
      ·
      1 day ago

      God I hope so, but Trump’s continued support, specifically with white women, the largest demographic, is just BAFFLING to me.

      • Socialist Mormon Satanist@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        11
        ·
        edit-2
        1 day ago

        I do see some older middle-aged women Trump supporters here, but most of the Trump supporters I see are the guys with the flags on their trucks and stuff.