I feel like being an inspiring charismatic leader is kind of incompatible with the gauntlet that would get someone pre-approved as a party-selected candidate. I’m having a hard time thinking of an establishment-favored figure who’s really charismatic. Buttigieg maybe? But he was sort of out of left field and it feels like he’s been more of a tool to deploy to soften bad news stories than someone the establishment is raising up as a potential next big thing. Booker is probably the most party-supported charismatic figure, but I don’t think relentless positivity is enough to lead in times where lots of people are legitimately angry.

My theory is that Obama, for all the success he brought to the party, shook it up in ways the establishment structure really didn’t like. Since then they haven’t really been looking for the next Obama, because populism is dangerous to established power structures. That’s why the 2020 convention didn’t have a keynote speaker, it had 17 all saying a line or two from a speech, which means none of the “rising voices” actually has a chance to break out.