Estonia considers itself a front-line state, a Nato member where its border guards stare across the Narva River at the Russian fortress of Ivangorod.
This tiny Baltic state, once a part of the Soviet Union, is convinced that once the fighting stops in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin will turn his attention to the Baltics, looking to bring countries like Estonia back under Moscow’s control.
To help stave off that possibility, Estonia’s government has poured money and weapons into Ukraine’s war effort, donating more than 1% of its GDP to Kyiv.
Yes, but Moldova is having none of it. They are firmly EU-aligned and will not go over to Russia willingly. That means they are essentially untouchable barring Russia taking all of Ukraine or launching an absurdly large-scale military operation into the black sea and through Odesa. Considering their Black Sea fleet was already crippled by a country with no navy, that seems unlikely. I also doubt Romania would look the other way.
I would assume they’d use Transnistria as a proxy. The attempted coup in 2023 is a huge indication that Russia is still very interested in Moldova and will further thier hybrid efforts after they’ve settled when they take Ukraine. Georgia is most likely going to be a vassal state under the Georgia Dream.