TLDR: There was a recent shakeup of the Russian top brass and an economist was put in a top job. He thinks the economist has told Putin that this can not be sustained given Russia’s capability and Western promised support. Putin might actually be listening and why he wants to settle on current control.
Beau covered a lot of that. This isn’t the only economist that has said it, but it might be one that Putin is finally listening to. And he’s not just a random economist, apparently forecasting is his whole thing, he’s really good at it, and I get the impression it’s far more detailed than general economy. Which is probably why he specifically got the job and is being listened to.
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — Ezra Solomon, professor of finance, Stanford University