1/ Russia’s security forces are reported to be in disarray following the attempted mutiny by the Wagner Group. It seems to have been perfectly timed for a moment – Friday night – when many personnel were too drunk to respond quickly, while others are refusing to fight Wagner.
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports what its sources are saying is the situation within various security organisations. At the FSB and Ministry of Internal Affairs, “Everyone is up and running, urgently reporting in. Now all the offices are like one big after-party.”
3/ “80 per cent of the staff smell of booze. Some of them can barely stand on their feet. Can’t arm 'em, can’t send 'em anywhere. Friday night’s the perfect time to start something like this. Everybody’s standing around, waiting for something. No introductions.”
4/ “A couple of hours more and the conflicts among themselves will start when [the alcohol] starts to wear off.”
5/ Unwillingness to fight Wagner appears to be a common theme. “There is real panic in Rostov, especially among the police. There is more than a 40 percent shortfall in personnel among those called up in connection with Operation Fortress” (to defend security installations).
6/ Wagner forces were able to cross the border from Ukraine without opposition, despite orders not to let them through. “Both the border service of the FSB and the Interior Ministry received instructions to stop the Wagner PMC. No one is complying, as it is not realistic.”
7/ Most ominously for the Kremlin, elements of the security forces appear to be actively siding with Wagner or refusing to act against it.
8/ “The defence ministry has lost control over a number of units and formations of the South Eastern Military District, it will not be possible to organise defence by the Rosgvardia [Russian National Guard] and the FSB. Local leaders are extremely careful in their statements”.
9/ “Attempts to counter Prigozhin are only going through the FSB and the National Guard. The Ministry of Defence has simply withdrawn, junior officers either refuse to follow orders or directly support Wagner.”
10/ And Shoigu and the [MOD leadership] team just hid and completely lost touch with reality. The fear is obviously serious."
Wagner is reported to be directly taking control of some South Eastern Military District units.
11/ “A number of units of the Ministry of Defence that participated in the war are beginning to come under the command of Wagner. Entire corps. Shoigu and Gerasimov’s people are being removed.”
12/ General Gerasimov himself has not been seen in public since the mutiny began. According to Wagner channels, he was in Rostov when it fell to Wagner forces.
13/ He is said to have "escaped from the Rostov [military] headquarters along with people loyal to him” and “is holed up in a civilian apartment with his friends in Rostov.” /end
The ‘weakened state’ could only come with far far more deaths of soldiers and Ukraine citizens and only a matter of time till this happens regardless. There certainly is a state right now in the next few months where where risk is quite high. If Wagner does succeed, I suspect all their energy will be focused inward and they will strive to become an energy powerhouse again. Particularly as the West is so willing to concede conventional energy production to countries like this. That could lead to a very unstable situation in say ten years when corruption becomes full blown.