Step one: billions of dollars are invested on oil refineries that have a specific target range for their input

Step two: oil coming out of the ground isn’t what the refineries need, so they blend different grades of crude oil to operate.

Step three: by 2025, the costs of the heavy crude are skyrocketing. So government prints money to subsidize the costs to hide this from the market.

Step four: even with subsidues its too expensive again, so the government begins giving refiners heavy crude straight from the strategic reserves

Step five: the system breaks when there are simply not enough heavy crude molecules to keep it going.

Step 6: this hidden stress is not noticed by the public + media. So the government provokes a conflict with Iran. Iran responds and the underlying problem becomes obvious. Iran and Trump take the blame as if this is a human-led shortage.

Step 6a: the price of refined oil products is too high for the previous global order to pay, economic collapse is inevitable for the global picture

Step 7: the world is forced into an physical oil triage response which hits the global periphery hardest and preserves heavy crude for the richer nations