Useful analysis, plots do suggest that there’s an anomaly beyond the usual pattern, but maybe the underlying trend fit is too simple, missing factors such as the post-covid spike due to shipping sulphate, also the 11yr solar cycle (we’re near a peak). Also worth checking whether the anomaly is concentrated in one region - as 24 months is a short timescale for global averaging.
Useful analysis, plots do suggest that there’s an anomaly beyond the usual pattern, but maybe the underlying trend fit is too simple, missing factors such as the post-covid spike due to shipping sulphate, also the 11yr solar cycle (we’re near a peak). Also worth checking whether the anomaly is concentrated in one region - as 24 months is a short timescale for global averaging.