• variaatio
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    10
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    2 months ago

    Well thing is polls are always little bad at predicting in this kind of situation. Since for example, if Harris was the candidate, the campaign machine would change messaging behind her. This might affect things and so on.

    So any one who isn’t the main candidate has to be taken with “what would be this persons chances on election day taking in account between now and then campaign machine will be pushing them

    Many many other candidates have benefit of “don’t look like they are at deaths door and statistically aren’t beyond the expected life expectancy of USA population for person born so long ago.”

    Since realistically for example as morbid as it is ( and democrats and Biden forced themselves for me to making this comparison by insisting on the old man), one isn’t voting for President Biden for 4 years. Nah it’s like maybe 1-2 of President Biden and then rest of the term President Harris. Since that man is so old and looking bad health, he gets elected he is going to die in office. He will die in year or two also out of office, but well he really should take his retirement and enjoy the year or two of life he has left.

    So the “Harris wouldn’t be better choice”, well she will be the choice in year or two. Don’t think voters don’t take that into account. People aren’t dumb and can read life expectancy chart and use their eyes.

    • MagicShel@programming.dev
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      4
      ·
      edit-2
      2 months ago

      Well thing is polls are always little bad at predicting in this kind of situation.

      You’re right. Polls are more responsive to the things going on than predictive about what should happen. As the situation changes, polls would change to reflect that, but Kamala is starting from about the worst position of anyone, which is worrisome because it means a lot more messaging to turn people around.

      So the “Harris wouldn’t be better choice”, well she will be the choice in year or two. Don’t think voters don’t take that into account. People aren’t dumb and can read life expectancy chart and use their eyes.

      If that were true, and I don’t buy into the scenario or that it significantly affects how people will vote, but I’ll entertain it, how do you expect things to turn out differently if Kamala were at the top is the ticket? If anything, that feels like an argument that Kamala is hurting Biden’s numbers.