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22·20 days agoprobably ADHD, scroll to the bottom for sources and look those up, thats what i usually do . the paper this is derived from was previously posted already
Bardeen, Charles G., Douglas E. Kinnison, Owen B. Toon, Michael J. Mills, Francis Vitt, Lili Xia, Jonas Jägermeyr et al. “Extreme ozone loss following nuclear war results in enhanced surface ultraviolet radiation.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126, no. 18 (2021): e2021JD035079. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035079
✓ Canada’s per-capita productivity ranks among the highest in the world, though this is masked by US corporate owners’ use of transfer and ‘management’ fees to eliminate reported Canadian profits (and avoid paying any Canadian taxes)
Their economy is the biggest potemkin economy ive ever seen , all the metrics are skewed by pure bulllshit financialization and real estate ponzi with everyone selling houses back and forth to each other on crazy leverage with adjustable rate mortgages, its like 2007 there for the past 17 years without the big crash to bring the thing down, they just keep legislating ways to keep it going.
✓ protesting in Canada is mostly legal, though this freedom is being threatened ✓ the level of surveillance of citizen activity and behaviour remains tolerable, though this is changing, especially surveillance by foreign corporations and governments
bullshit they attacked and even seized and froze the bank accounts of the trucker protestors not that long ago. they have less freedom than the usa by a huge margin. ottawa is police state at the lightest protest they give bullshit charges to anyone present if they can find anything at all, like you forgot to replace your license plate bulb or have a old empty beer can near you
✓ we are extraordinarily privileged to be free from the imminent threat of war or invasion
canada government is the occupation , its a colony of britain , with an absolutely miserable underclass of indigenous people. the canadian gov is worse than the usa they just have better PR.
They are literally razing childrens playgrounds to install homeless encampments where they burn mostly plastic to stay warm it is insane.
USA citizens would work those jobs if they paid them a living wage. Labor costs are tiny fraction of food costs even tripling the prevailing ag labor wage would be trivial percent increases in the price of most food
6 in 10 struggle to “recognize and work with mathematical relationships, patterns, and proportions expressed in verbal or numerical form; and can interpret and perform basic analyses of data and statistics in texts, tables and graphs.”
The level 3 question , is what i would consider to be elementary school level. Only 37% of US Adults scored at Level ≥3
Are you not terrified?!
I always wondered how climate deniers could look at temperature and co2 level graphs then walk away with completely different reality than me… It turns out they are actually borderline mentally retarded and these people are a giant dangerous mob
with higher temps , it isnt a mystery how. it drives bacteria and fungi metabolic rates and activity they eat carbon and fart it out. plain simple and predicted decades ago
pretty sure everyone that title read that chuckled and said “semi?!?” incredulously
Not
This is one of my major metrics for measuring collapse, kind of scary its already happening and things aren’t even bad yet
In 17th- to 20th-century England, the Lockeian idea that property should be made and held by the highest-value creators formed the justification for enclosure of the commons.
Thats not a lockeian idea. Locke was quite clear that private property was unjustifiable when there wasn’t as much and as good available for everyone else.
supplement is good for getting more detailed ideas of what various scenarios look like for particular countries
A year ago I was reading a bunch of papers on biofortification via plant breeding and there was some really interesting info about just how many people can be shifted from inadequate to adequate intake of some nutrients just by breeding in things like higher levels of lysine, zinc, iron, beta carotene, etc… into staple crops. In places like india and africa just replacing a handful of crops with improved varieties can shift hundreds of millions of people out of deficiency ranges that cause permanent cognitive and physical stunting/disability.
Overtime as trace mineral depletion continues in global cropland and as CO2 levels reduce nutrient density of crops purposeful breeding programs and soil repletion will be necessary to have decent health of previous generations
Down in Texas on gulf coast area, my friends panic buying a house but the mortgage is impossible unless the house is fully insured until it is paid off, the snag is that of all the insurers they called none would insure houses in this location and the house they are buying is not in flood zone and is not adjacent to any water. Big insurance is just straight abandoning huge areas and letting current policies fall off and not renewing
yeah investment will continue and they will extend this timeline but we find less and less which is more costly to extract. The real shock of this is just that the situation is very dire very quickly if the pace cannot keep up. If you consider that investment could cease substantially due to financial issues or the fact that high oil prices may not be sustainable. How fast this collapse can happens if something goes wrong is really the reason i posted this. the decline can be so fierce it would be a huge stagflationary trigger which is how most people will experience this.
Previously, I remember you saying that the average person will start to feel very affected by the energy crunch starting sometime in the 2030’s and that the level of collapse will continue to increase for maybe a few decades after that.
I was probably talking about total energy including natural gas, because natural gas peak estimates come in around 2034, after that its crucial we have built out alternatives sufficiently to at least put a floor beneath us in terms of electrical generation. Its still possible we can get enough build out to at least keep functioning as depletion kicks in but we are currently not aggressive enough with installing renewable or nuclear capacity.
Our Outlook reflects oil production naturally declining at a rate of about 15% per year. That’s nearly double the IEA’s prior estimates of about 8%. This increase is the result of the world’s shifting energy mix toward “unconventional” sources of oil and natural gas. These are mostly shale and dense rock formations where oil and gas production typically declines faster. To put it in concrete terms: With no new investment, global oil supplies would fall by more than 15 million barrels per day in the first year alone. At that rate, by 2030, oil supplies would fall from 100 million barrels per day to less than 30 million – that’s 70 million barrels short of what’s needed to meet demand every day.
The world would experience severe energy shortages and disruption to daily lives within a year of investment ceasing. Given price responses to past oil supply shocks, the permanent loss of 15% of oil supply per year could raise oil prices by more than 400%. By comparison, prices rose 200% during the oil price shocks of the 1970s. Within 10 years, unemployment rates would likely reach 30%. That’s higher than during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
given that Edo era Japan did not have biofuels
Wood is biofuel.
to summarize in a different way the arguments of the person you are debating with i would say just look around you, how much have we weaned from fossil fuels.
in 1993 the sum of nuclear and renewables in our global energy mix was 14%, 30 years later in 2023 it is 18.5%. our total energy usage is massively higher and fossil fuel use is massively higher over those 30 years.
Its too little too late scenario. Sure its technically possible we could replace FFs with renewables and nuclear but thats not where we are at yet or in the next 50 years at this pace. Now depending on what you think the depletion curve of FFs looks like will tell you if it will be possible or not. the data doesnt look good for a smooth transition. At best the scenario is a severe bottleneck unless we pull some unprecedented exponential changes in renewable and nuclear deployment.
I stayed in lousiana near the gulf for a while and passed through there a few times over the past 5 years. Its incredible how much of the stuff never rebuilt, not just from katrina but all the damage since in multiple cities just entire areas where 60% of the houses have blue tarps on the roofs and knocked over trees and collapsed sheds/fences never dealt with. It gets noticeably worse each time i pass through. It is not all just the poorest areas either, its areas where you would think people would have insurance coverage but at this point insurance is falling into “discretionary” spending category as people need to just buy necessities and hope for the best. there are parts that look like post-collapse movie or something where people just do whatever makeshift ghetto rigged patches and stay.
let me know if chart shows up. its not working for me for some reason, other mods delete post if im not awake to deal with it after confirming no chart visible to anyone else either
queue AENIMA background track
at least it would probably build up some new ice and increase albedo, maybe set off a global cooling cycle