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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: August 1st, 2023

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  • No, I agree that independence is necessary, not just because of “always”, but because if, as a crude example, your odds of hitting B halve each time you hit A, an infinite number of tries isn’t guaranteed to give you Shakespeare, even if the odds aren’t technically 0. My problem was that what you originally described wasn’t independence, it’s uniformity, which isn’t a prerequisite. And it’s up to 9 upvotes now so I don’t know what’s going on.


  • What? That’s not what independence means. They need to be independent, yes, because otherwise you might get into weird corner cases where the probably doesn’t converge to 1, but they don’t have to be equally likely. In fact, weighing the odds based on how often letters are used by Shakespeare should lower the expected timeframe. Heck, Shakespeare doesn’t use “J”, why would that key even be relevant? Where in the world do normal distributions even come into this? How does this comment have 4 upvotes? What am I missing here?


  • Ummm, actually… Based on the internal IDs, the Caterpie line was added all at once way after Venonat and later Venomoth. If there had been a readjustment or error, you’d expect these not to be in sequence (like with Wartortle losing its evolution and getting the first-design-phase Blastoise in its place). They may have decided to scrap Venonat, but then needed a prevo for Venomoth and kept it in despite the similarities to Butterfree, but having an evolutionary link between Metapod and Venomoth seems highly unlikely.