I think he’s trying to get that soft power he used to have where he could make threats and the west would appease him to some degree to avoid nuclear war.
Though IMO whether the nuclear arsenal is working or not, those bluffs should be called each time, otherwise that line will keep getting pushed until it reaches the point where a demand cannot be met or compromised and then we’re in the same spot we’d be if we had just called the first bluff, except Putin also has the benefit of each previous appeasement.
When they say, “don’t do x or we will nuke you”, assume they won’t decide to end civilization unless x is “launch nukes” or “destroy Russia”. The only way they will launch nukes if they aren’t facing destruction themselves is if they think they can survive the response.
I think he’s trying to get that soft power he used to have where he could make threats and the west would appease him to some degree to avoid nuclear war.
Though IMO whether the nuclear arsenal is working or not, those bluffs should be called each time, otherwise that line will keep getting pushed until it reaches the point where a demand cannot be met or compromised and then we’re in the same spot we’d be if we had just called the first bluff, except Putin also has the benefit of each previous appeasement.
How do you call a nuclear bluff?
When they say, “don’t do x or we will nuke you”, assume they won’t decide to end civilization unless x is “launch nukes” or “destroy Russia”. The only way they will launch nukes if they aren’t facing destruction themselves is if they think they can survive the response.
You are assuming that the Russian leadership is rational and well informed. I think the war against Ukraine has clearly shown that it’s neither.