I’d wager it’s a combination of the cumulative effects of climate change and the first El Niño since 2015-16 developing following three consecutive years of below average ENSO temperatures. We’ll probably see global average temperatures moderate a bit after this El Niño ends, and the current forecast is for it to subside by summer. But gods help us when the next El Niño comes around, and then the next, and then the next…
Also, if you look at the slope of the mean and standard deviation lines for the start of the year, this year is no different in that regard, so this very recent increase just seems more stark due to the unusual decrease that happened right before. It’s just the starting was way higher than average. Well outside 2 standard deviations higher 😳
I’d wager it’s a combination of the cumulative effects of climate change and the first El Niño since 2015-16 developing following three consecutive years of below average ENSO temperatures. We’ll probably see global average temperatures moderate a bit after this El Niño ends, and the current forecast is for it to subside by summer. But gods help us when the next El Niño comes around, and then the next, and then the next…
Also, if you look at the slope of the mean and standard deviation lines for the start of the year, this year is no different in that regard, so this very recent increase just seems more stark due to the unusual decrease that happened right before. It’s just the starting was way higher than average. Well outside 2 standard deviations higher 😳