The reality of the situation is that Russia doesn’t work the same way as Western countries. Or most countries for that matter. The structure of power in Russia is completely different for historical reasons (you can learn more here https://youtu.be/f8ZqBLcIvw0).

The short version is that in most countries members of lower classes of the society compete with members of the higher classes for rights, privileges, etc. In Russia members of the same class compete with each other to please the higher classes for privileges, etc.

The situation in Russia right now is that there are three major military forces: regular army, Wagner group and Putin’s private army.

Regular army and Wagner are in the same class and they compete with each other. Regular army is highly corrupt, inefficient and pretty much rotten to the core after decades of mismanagement. Yet it still poses some threat to Putin. Wagner group is a small and efficient (compared to regular army) force. It won’t be able to take an open fight with a regular army due to man power, but it’s string enough to hold a punch here and there.

Prigozhin shits on regular army to win points in the eyes of Putin. Putin then uses Prigozhin’s critique to put dump the faces of generals into their shit and to control them. Regular army doesn’t like this though and is now planning counter offensive against Prigozhin. And this is something people in the West rarely hear about.

So, the latest news of this in-class fighting! Prigozhin has a contract to supply regular army with food rations and he is using these profits to execute military operations across the world in the interest of Russian Federation. Sometime ago Shoigu took over army control. He also has legislative powers. So he decided to increase daily spend per person. Sounds like free money for Prigozhin? Of course not! Once the spending was increased, a lot of oligarchs started to get into Prigozhin’s supply chain. And he didn’t like it. So he wrote an official letter to Shoigu that he won’t be complicit in corruption, that it undermines his ability to fund his operations and that Russian MoD should find another food supplier. Big thick fuck you to Shoigu!

But that was the first play. Right now Shoigu is pushing another bill to force independent military groups to become part of regular army or, at least, be controlled by the army. Now that will hurt Wagner group a lot. The question is what will Putin do about it as he’s not interested in losing Prigozhin.

That seems to me more a way in for him in the ministry of Defense. Scapegoating current defense minister and replacing him…

Interesting. I’m not sure how well Putin can play the “they deceived me card”, considering it may make him look weak. But punishing the “deceivers” may make him look strong. Who knows? I guess it depends on what the Russian people want to believe.