In this bone-chilling report, it is explained that at this point over a million people on this planet have been forced out of their homes and obliged to seek refuge elsewhere.
For some of them, this is a direct result of climate-related disasters like drought and flooding.
For others this is a result of war, but it can be argued that war may be exacerbated by climate change events:
“Historically, levels of armed conflict over time have been heavily influenced by shocks to, and changes in, international relations among states and in their domestic political systems,” said James Fearon, professor of political science and co-author on the study. “It is quite likely that over this century, unprecedented climate change is going to have significant impacts on both, but it is extremely hard to anticipate whether the political changes related to climate change will have big effects on armed conflict in turn. So I think putting nontrivial weight on significant climate effects on conflict is reasonable.”
When homes, infrastructure, and food production are affected, and healthcare, maintenance and emergency services become overwhelmed, it stands to reason that increasing unrest and discontent is likely, mass immigration is inevitable, and that that will affect politics.
Far-right parties are gaining traction in Europe where anti-immigration policy is high on their agenda.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)…is polling 17-19% nationwide, around a record high for the party that now vies with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats for second place in some surveys, up from fifth in the 2021 election when it secured 10.3% of the vote.
…
Far-right parties have gained ground across Europe. In France, the far-right has become a stronger rival at the ballot box, while in Italy and Sweden, they are now are in government.
As well as this:
The AfD, which disputes that human activity is a cause of climate change, has also tapped into concerns among some voters about the cost of the transition away from fossil fuels.
Tragic irony.
By the end of the century it’ll be a full-blown agricultural collapse. It’s easy to forget that our entire civilization is only possible because of a stable, temperate climate that allows us to grow enough food to sustain billions. Take that away and it goes right back to how it was pre ice age, with only a few million humans at most, living a pastoral nomadic hunter-gatherer lifestyle. Only this time there won’t be a cornucopia of megafauna to hunt.
It’s scary because I’m terrified of dying in some crazy weather or riots, I’m terrified of being forced out of my home and have to beg some other country to take me in, I’m terrified because even if I’m lucky enough to stay put, and assuming I live in a pocket where the economy and infrastructure stay stable, there are still Nazis growing in numbers everywhere who are definitely going to react violently to unprecedented numbers of immigrants flowing in from every direction.
a stable, temperate climate that allows us to grow enough food
Yup, and don’t forget that at this point our agriculture is also completely reliant on continuous pesticide and fertilizer use. As soon as those resources start to become a bigger problem than the one they solve (spoiler: they already are (Fertilizer, Pesticides), we’re going to start seeing more than toilet paper falling off of supermarket shelves.
So what we all need to be doing now, is figuring out how to grow things without massive quantities of artificial fertilizer use. By simply using manure and compost as has been done for millennium.
Sri Lanka tried that a couple years ago and collapsed.
Adding to the concern over the Afd:
(Note: I am not an political expert, this is my opinion based on impressions from Austria. And I have relatives in Germany. Feel free to provide constructive criticism.)
Most people who vote for the Afd aren’t particulary interested in their ideologies of denying climate change or shooting at migrants at the border. Of course there are the <5% of voters who believe that bullshit and would love to get Hitler back. But the other >13% who would vote for them are just people who work minimum wage, maybe have to care for children, or their elderly parents who can’t live of their retirement money, or have to care for a family member, all with the soaring rent prices and inflation. These people may not believe in these insane theories, but if you are a cleaner relying on the social system (good in Germany, but has seen better times) you might as well fear that people seeking asylum may take your job, or will lead to cuts in the social system (no matter how irrational that is, humans aren’t rational). The current goverment consists of the SPD (Socialist party Germany), the FDP (Free-Democratic-Party (just neo-liberals, who only support (big) company interests and whose leader eats each dinner together with another company boss, who of course doesn’t bribe him and just wants to chat with him about non-politic issues)) and “Die Grünen” (the Greens, who are, guess what, an Eco party). While these parties have made significant advances, concerning the social injustice, the growing gap betwenn rich and poor, modernising the bureaucracy, including schools and other state funded buildings, etc., it is not enough. Social injustice is still growing and the government, did not meet their expectations. Yes, they were voted into the late corona-crisis followed by an Ukraine war, soaring inflation and a energy crisis, which they handled pretty good (not perfectly, but whatever), but this is not the only reason for these problems. First we have the SPD, the socialists who have reigned with the conservative parties (CDU and CSU) for years for the cost of everything they stand for. In these sixteen years the countries goverment was in stasis, causing the issues the now government has to deal with. Although they planned things like the exit out of coal, when they had to deal with it, they postponed the date hoping they wouldn’t have to deal with it again and again (while stuffing way to much money down companies throat). The SPD watched and now has basically nothing they stand for and they were the winners of the election, because they, differing from the other (big) parties, kept quiet and didn’t have any (too big) scandals. The Greens were ambitous, got also a lot of votes and tried to change a lot of things, making things foremost more eco-friendly, regulating big companies, building infrastructure. Well who would have been surprised that the neo-liberals are against regulating the free market. The FDP cockblocked like more than half of these projects, because they gotta protect the economy from bad social equality. And as far as I’m seeing, that’s the only thing theyr’e doing in this government. But “The Greens” are also to idealistic. Their “Heizunggesetz” a proposed law that in it’s original state would have forced home owners to rebuild their heating-systems into renewable energy based heating systems in a few years, and renovate their buildings to certain eco-friendly standards. Problem being that they are doing the same thing with their party-central a multi-family building. It has taken them 4 years and 5 million euro and they still aren’t finished. Now I don’t think the average citizen can pull 1 Million out of their pocket just to renovate their only place of living. So after months of arguments a very very toned down version of the law seems to be the final one. And interestingly the AfD is on a new vote-record in polls. It seems that if the wealth is not fairly distributed and solving of climate change seems fairly expensive, people who are already struggling to survive will rather vote for a nazi-party who denies climate change.
Frustrating.
