A New York Times analysis of the results released so far estimated that the final turnout will be around 110,000 voters. As of 11:30 pm Eastern time, about 105,000 votes had been recorded. That would be significantly below the 187,000 Republicans who voted in 2016, which was a record turnout. About 122,000 voted in 2012, 118,000 in 2008 and about 87,000 in 2000.
The Trump train is losing major steam. Only 18% of the GOP turned out to vote yesterday. Trump only got half of that GOP vote lol.
I would say that’s still a manageable temp to go vote in, if you’re spending little time out of doors, rather going house-to-car-to-building. Any significant requirement of time spent outside, particularly idling in line; changes that.
That answer is also changed depending on the state of the ground/roads. Is there a significant amount of ice about? In neighbouring Wisconsin there is.
Also, a lot of voters, particularly conservative ones, are older, and the perils of the ice and deep cold are greater for them, and likely considered as such.
So… yeah. I can see weather dampening turnout at this quite a bit.