Before this fall, the Ukrainian air force protected Odesa with Soviet-vintage S-300 surface-to-air missiles that range up to 50 miles under normal conditions.
Snake Island lies 90 miles south of Odesa. So a Black Sea Fleet Su-24 armed with, say, Kh-59MK2 cruise missiles should have been able to strike targets across Odesa Oblast, from beyond the range of Ukrainian air-defenses, simply by remaining near Snake Island.
That no longer is the case. Ukrainian missiles launching from Odesa now can threaten Russian jets as far south as Snake Island.
That strongly implies that the new air-defense battery in Odesa is one of Ukraine’s precious American-made Patriot batteries firing 100-mile-range PAC-2 missiles. Although it’s possible it’s a battery armed with S-300PSs, which are longer-range versions of the basic S-300.
Hmm.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-24
Air-to-surface missiles:
- 4 × Kh-23M
- 4 × Kh-25ML
- 2 x Storm Shadow - Ukrainian service [117]
- Kh-59ME
- Kh-29L/T/D
According to WP, the Kh-59 variants are the only long-range air-to-surface missile that the Su-24 carries and which Russia will have access to.
WP lists the range of the Kh-59MK2 as being 290 km (160 nmi) (180mi).
SAMs can have different ranges. Firing one has to take into account that an aircraft can fly away from the missile, which may reduce the effective range. But I think, from what I see online, that the 100 mi PAC-2 range in the article is the actual maximum range of the missile.
If so, and if we’re talking about the Kh-59Mk2, I think that a Russian aircraft could still hit most of Odesa Oblast while remaining outside of Patriot range. Odesa Oblast is only about 120 miles south-to-north, and the listed range of the Kh-59Mk2 exceeds that of a PAC-2 by about 80 mi. So maybe two-thirds of Odesa Oblast would be in range, if the Russian aircraft were willing to fire right at the edge of PAC-2 range.
The PAC-2 does push Russian aircraft back, but it doesn’t look like it has the range to keep them from at least shooting at most of Odesa Oblast if the plane has a Kh-59Mk2 and if the aircraft anticipates that a PAC-2 may be fired at it.
Thank you for your calculations. But since the Patriots have been able to shoot down even the Kinzhal missiles aimed at Kyiv, won’t they be able to shoot down the Kh-59 missiles?
Also, I doubt that the Kh-59MK2 ever went into mass production. AFAIK, most of the weapons that were successfully sold and exported abroad were mass-produced - because that provided plenty of bribes for corrupt officials. Experimental, highly improved versions are usually shelved until they can be sold abroad. No one would pay bribes for their internal mass production.
But since the Patriots have been able to shoot down even the Kinzhal missiles aimed at Kyiv, won’t they be able to shoot down the Kh-59 missiles?
Could be. I’m not saying that the Kh-59s can’t be intercepted, just that I’m skeptical of David Axe’s assertion that the Su-24s could launch Kh-59s safely before at Odessa Oblast and now can’t because of Patriots.
Also, I doubt that the Kh-59MK2 ever went into mass production.
That may well also be true – but again, David Axe was operating on the assumption that they were using Kh-59Mk2s, so I’m just working with his claim.
I’m not saying that the Kh-59s can’t be intercepted, just that I’m skeptical of David Axe’s assertion that the Su-24s could launch Kh-59s safely before at Odessa Oblast and now can’t because of Patriots.
To be precise, his statement is more specific. He says that they could attack from near the Snake Island, and now can’t.
Well, anyway. Have a wonderful day!
