A survey shows most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under pressure brought by high interest rates.

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

  • Ranvier
    2·
    1 year ago

    You aren’t hearing me. And you’re (literally) putting words in my mouth. Last comment from me.

    If everyone is screaming about going on inflation fighting crusades and look how bad inflation is, meanwhile inflation is flat now and purchasing power is the same as it has been. Well you’re not gonna improve anything for anyone by focusing on inflation any further at this point (unless you’re proposing increasing interest rates to the point that you crash the economy enough to cause deflation after no one can afford anything so prices have to drop, or switching to a centrally planned economy, I wouldn’t recommend either). So let’s talk about those many economic issues that are out of control that will improve the situation and ability of people to get things they want and need. Like improving income inequality. There’s a way to increase your purchasing power. Or making sure the rich pay their fair share so social security is solvent so people in retirement and not working get increases compensating for inflation. Feel free to go on harping about inflation that’s not even happening any more though I guess.