Wishful thinking. And I say that as someone who is not a pessimist by nature.
Population? Yes, the peak is coming, probably faster than imagined, but still in several more decades at the earliest.
Food production? No, there is not remotely enough land to feed everyone the meaty Western diet that the world’s ballooning middle class wants. There is no squaring this particular circle. Something will have to give.
Energy? This one looks doable, but the tail-end of the fossil age is still going to wreak havoc with the climate. After all, the bulk of all historic emissions happened in the last 25 years.
Recycling? A red herring. Glass, metal and paper recycling was never an issue, because it makes sense economically. But it is straight-up uneconomical to recycle plastic, and always has been. The real issue is about how to stop it getting into the environment. This problem is not even slightly solved.
Migration? Gonna be an issue. Whatever your personal tolerance for it, most people see their nation-state as their family home, and will not take a home invasion lying down.
Very dangerous years and decades are ahead of us. It’s not hopeless but we need to adjust expectations, roll our sleeves up, and not imagine that the best outcome will happen all by itself.
Food production is already well above what is needed to feed the entire population. The prodution volume is higher today than as ever been.
And if it wasn’t for consecutive disastrous CAP agreements in the EU - and now I’m narrowing the scope - the overall food production in Europe alone would be much higher than it is today.
Narrowing the scope, in my country there is more land laid fallow and abandoned today than ever and growing each year, while modern culture techniques allow comparetively very small areas to produce more alone than huge areas in the past were ever able.
Live stock is also becoming more and more expensive to raise and the conditions to do so are becoming harder to achieve due to climate change. Traditional live small live stock live pidgeons, rabbits and other small and easy to keep animals have been pushed away in detriment of cows, again, in the EU, due to disastrous Common Agriculture Pacts, that actively subsidized cattle ranching in countries like Portugal and Spain, to allow France to produce cereals and other open field crops unrivaled.
But I can’t agree the middle class is ballooning. Considering the current state of the global economy, it is in fact going through a hard pinch and shrinkage.
Recycling is not a red herring. The global production of plastics is a pain and largely a disaster to manage at end of chain but, again, because there is no guts for it. Every single small change to ban a specific single use plastic is met with great distrust, on the first line usually common citizens.
Unrecyclable plastics and other materials should be incinerated using pyrolitic combustion facilities for energy production instead of being buried in landfills. Recycling is already less expensive to do than extracting raw materials and it will keep developing. There is no other way.
I wholeheartedly agree things will get worse before they get better but I will insist it is not as bad as we are made to think and this is not in any degree denial of climate change nor any other problems.
Food production is already well above what is needed to feed the entire population.
On bread? Sure. “Food” is an almost meaningless term. With current technology there is nowhere near enough land to feed the world’s population with what they all want: a lot of meat and dairy. I cannot help but be pessimistic on this one. Diet is such a core part of culture, people refuse to compromise on it, and no, the current technology is nowhere near offering an alternative at scale. And this is before even mentioning the animal-welfare disaster of contemporary factory farming.
due to disastrous Common Agriculture Pacts
Agreed that Europe’s ag policy is disastrously counterproductive. But, respectfully, I still think you are seriously underestimating the challenge of feeding 9 billion people on meat, even excluding cows (which unfortunately a lot of people will continue to want). Most of the world’s people will soon be living in overcrowded cities and demanding beef and pork wrapped in plastic. I’m having trouble seeing the home-raising of rabbits and pigeons at scale, although it’s certainly a nice idea.
Unrecyclable plastics and other materials should be incinerated using pyrolitic combustion
I also thought it sounded cool when I learned about it. Plastic: gone! But it’s completely unproven at scale and almost nobody is doing it. When’s the breakthrough coming? And besides, even at scale this would be just another form of carbon pollution. Oil with with an energy-intensive plastic intermediate stage. Right now, it is simple more expensive than turning oil into new plastic.
Recycling is already less expensive to do than extracting raw materials
Incorrect for plastic, see above. Correct for other materials.
this is not in any degree denial of climate change
Sure, you seem like a rational person. Excessively optimistic IMO, but I agree that pessimism should be kept in check because it can be corrosive. There’s always hope for making things better than they might otherwise be.
If I manage to find again the thesis I read, I’ll forward it to you.
Essentially, on a global scale, any food item is produced on a large enough scale to accomodate large waste of resources, including meat. Money is being thrown out to produce that is lost in chain of value. The criticism towards unrealistic standards set by governments is brutal. The call is for cutting back on production, by slowly cutting back on subsidizing. There is a very poor management of resources at play.
I’ll give a simple example from my country: we routinely pay heavy fines for exceeding milk production quotas, in large part because most of that milk comes from one region ideal for livestock but little else. Grass grows plentiful but standard crops produce poorly due to salty winds.
Meanwhile, other countries try to raise their domestic production, regardless of proper conditions for it. In a simple world, we would produce to supply those countries because we have surplus we cannot consume (regardless how much cheese we make). The end result? Producers are downsizing herds and even throwing away milk, as they are barred from even giving it away, when they can’t sell any more. How ridiculous is this?
Raising pidgeons and rabbits (and guinea pigs, if people are not squeamish) is feasible on a very small scale. Again, another habit lost in the aftermath of the second war.
Pyrolitic inceneration is a thing and I worked with an engineer that tried to sell one plant to Angola, for thermal use of used tyres and urban residues. One very interesting feature was a special oxygen forced fed high temperature chamber to melt metals for easier separation. It was obviously expensive to build but it could remove a lot of waste from landfills. The downfall of the project: radical environmental groups.
Again, I’ll end with my costumary: things are bad but not as bad as we are forced to think.
Wishful thinking. And I say that as someone who is not a pessimist by nature.
Population? Yes, the peak is coming, probably faster than imagined, but still in several more decades at the earliest.
Food production? No, there is not remotely enough land to feed everyone the meaty Western diet that the world’s ballooning middle class wants. There is no squaring this particular circle. Something will have to give.
Energy? This one looks doable, but the tail-end of the fossil age is still going to wreak havoc with the climate. After all, the bulk of all historic emissions happened in the last 25 years.
Recycling? A red herring. Glass, metal and paper recycling was never an issue, because it makes sense economically. But it is straight-up uneconomical to recycle plastic, and always has been. The real issue is about how to stop it getting into the environment. This problem is not even slightly solved.
Migration? Gonna be an issue. Whatever your personal tolerance for it, most people see their nation-state as their family home, and will not take a home invasion lying down.
Very dangerous years and decades are ahead of us. It’s not hopeless but we need to adjust expectations, roll our sleeves up, and not imagine that the best outcome will happen all by itself.
Food production is already well above what is needed to feed the entire population. The prodution volume is higher today than as ever been.
And if it wasn’t for consecutive disastrous CAP agreements in the EU - and now I’m narrowing the scope - the overall food production in Europe alone would be much higher than it is today.
Narrowing the scope, in my country there is more land laid fallow and abandoned today than ever and growing each year, while modern culture techniques allow comparetively very small areas to produce more alone than huge areas in the past were ever able.
Live stock is also becoming more and more expensive to raise and the conditions to do so are becoming harder to achieve due to climate change. Traditional live small live stock live pidgeons, rabbits and other small and easy to keep animals have been pushed away in detriment of cows, again, in the EU, due to disastrous Common Agriculture Pacts, that actively subsidized cattle ranching in countries like Portugal and Spain, to allow France to produce cereals and other open field crops unrivaled.
But I can’t agree the middle class is ballooning. Considering the current state of the global economy, it is in fact going through a hard pinch and shrinkage.
Recycling is not a red herring. The global production of plastics is a pain and largely a disaster to manage at end of chain but, again, because there is no guts for it. Every single small change to ban a specific single use plastic is met with great distrust, on the first line usually common citizens.
Unrecyclable plastics and other materials should be incinerated using pyrolitic combustion facilities for energy production instead of being buried in landfills. Recycling is already less expensive to do than extracting raw materials and it will keep developing. There is no other way.
I wholeheartedly agree things will get worse before they get better but I will insist it is not as bad as we are made to think and this is not in any degree denial of climate change nor any other problems.
On bread? Sure. “Food” is an almost meaningless term. With current technology there is nowhere near enough land to feed the world’s population with what they all want: a lot of meat and dairy. I cannot help but be pessimistic on this one. Diet is such a core part of culture, people refuse to compromise on it, and no, the current technology is nowhere near offering an alternative at scale. And this is before even mentioning the animal-welfare disaster of contemporary factory farming.
Agreed that Europe’s ag policy is disastrously counterproductive. But, respectfully, I still think you are seriously underestimating the challenge of feeding 9 billion people on meat, even excluding cows (which unfortunately a lot of people will continue to want). Most of the world’s people will soon be living in overcrowded cities and demanding beef and pork wrapped in plastic. I’m having trouble seeing the home-raising of rabbits and pigeons at scale, although it’s certainly a nice idea.
I also thought it sounded cool when I learned about it. Plastic: gone! But it’s completely unproven at scale and almost nobody is doing it. When’s the breakthrough coming? And besides, even at scale this would be just another form of carbon pollution. Oil with with an energy-intensive plastic intermediate stage. Right now, it is simple more expensive than turning oil into new plastic.
Incorrect for plastic, see above. Correct for other materials.
Sure, you seem like a rational person. Excessively optimistic IMO, but I agree that pessimism should be kept in check because it can be corrosive. There’s always hope for making things better than they might otherwise be.
If I manage to find again the thesis I read, I’ll forward it to you.
Essentially, on a global scale, any food item is produced on a large enough scale to accomodate large waste of resources, including meat. Money is being thrown out to produce that is lost in chain of value. The criticism towards unrealistic standards set by governments is brutal. The call is for cutting back on production, by slowly cutting back on subsidizing. There is a very poor management of resources at play.
I’ll give a simple example from my country: we routinely pay heavy fines for exceeding milk production quotas, in large part because most of that milk comes from one region ideal for livestock but little else. Grass grows plentiful but standard crops produce poorly due to salty winds.
Meanwhile, other countries try to raise their domestic production, regardless of proper conditions for it. In a simple world, we would produce to supply those countries because we have surplus we cannot consume (regardless how much cheese we make). The end result? Producers are downsizing herds and even throwing away milk, as they are barred from even giving it away, when they can’t sell any more. How ridiculous is this?
Raising pidgeons and rabbits (and guinea pigs, if people are not squeamish) is feasible on a very small scale. Again, another habit lost in the aftermath of the second war.
Pyrolitic inceneration is a thing and I worked with an engineer that tried to sell one plant to Angola, for thermal use of used tyres and urban residues. One very interesting feature was a special oxygen forced fed high temperature chamber to melt metals for easier separation. It was obviously expensive to build but it could remove a lot of waste from landfills. The downfall of the project: radical environmental groups.
Again, I’ll end with my costumary: things are bad but not as bad as we are forced to think.