good news:
- Looks like opposition gets safe majority, but not supermajority (neither 3/5 required for rejecting presidential veto and some other things or 2/3 required for changing constitution, finalizing some international agreements and some other things). Seems like PiS won’t be able to get majority in any way imaginable
- The pro-russian bitches party, konfederacja, polled around 9% but in exit polls they scored nice 6.2%. It would be even better (and funnier) if they got less than 5%, which is electoral threshold, but i don’t hold my breath for this one, they are already sorely disappointed after they got high on their own supply of propaganda where they found one poll with 13.4% support for them. They’re kinda like AfD, in terms of better known euro parties
- Electoral participation seems to be record high at almost 73%. This seems to contribute to lower PiS score
- Parallel to elections there was kinda “referendum” with weaselly worded broad and imprecise questions meant to stir shit re: immigrants. However participation in this one is less than 40% and so it’s not binding
bad news:
none. i’m drinking tonight
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whoa whoa there, not so fast. first thing is forming the new government, then they’ll spend a year or so unfucking up what pis fucked up and uprooting their people from some seats in public institutions, and then it’s not a given that pis loses next election. but it’s an improvement
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one thing that i’m gonna give to them: PiS kickstarted sorely needed modernization of polish army. turns out that’s the problem that responds pretty well to pouring money at it. who could have guessed?
i hope this continues, even if limited in scale
Konfederacja is not like afd. PiS is like AfD. Konfederacja is like a child of FDP with NPD
Nah i wouldn’t say so. Konfa is more like AfD, PiS is more like CSU that got high on power and let intrusive thoughts win
PiS - Fidesz is also reasonable comparison
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Have fun, and thanks for the summary :)
i voted today, ask me anything
What did you vote and why?
i’ve voted for our tiny (8.6% in exit polls) social democrat party Razem every time since they were founded
Hello my fellow Razemek ;)
What are you drinking? I really hope for you people in Poland and for all of us Europeans that the exit polls results will be confirmed by actual results.
Where are you following the results? And at what time should we expect final(ish) results?
expect late polls monday evening and final, official results somewhere around tuesday or maybe even wednesday
official results will be here: lower house: https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/pl/sejm/wynik/pl upper house: https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/pl/senat/wynik/pl
as for now everyone seems to be taking exit polls from ipsos, this is fine might be paywalled https://www.rp.pl/wybory/art39269471-wybory-2023-badanie-exit-poll-pis-wygrywa-wybory-opozycja-ma-wiekszosc-w-sejmie this is fine, even that it’s owned by ringer axel springer now https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wybory-2023-opozycja-ma-szanse-przejac-wladze-znamy-mozliwy-podzial-mandatow/m1j15wm,79cfc278 guardian is fine, bbc is fine, everyone is reporting the same thing anyway from same sources
Thanks! As for the the drink?
i had some mean mojitos
ipsos late poll is out:
PiS 36,6% (198) KO 31,0% (161) TD 13,5% (57) Lewica 8,6% (30) Konfederacja 6,4% (14)
most likely coalition is KO + TD + Lewica with 248 seats, 231 needed for majority, 277 needed to reject presidential veto, 308 to change constitution
official results are expected tuesday evening or so
https://nitter.net/MarcinPalade <- this dude is a statistician, he posts results every time elections happen, rumors, exit polls, late polls, whatever you want, he has it
Thanks man, have a great day!
looking at partial election results something extremely funny is about to happen. check again tomorrow
schadenfreude delivery:
These are PiS high command’s cheerful faces at yesterday’s post-election conference. Technically they won elections as they got largest share of votes, but they won’t be able to form majority government
Drink one for me :)
So, Elightened Centrism coalition coming?
looks like KO + TD + Lewica, so socdems, centrist liberals, centrist-ish christian democrats and agrarians, overall proeuropean
So, for an outsider, is this similar as current, more or less righ wing? Will Poland go back on some problems regarding lgbt…+ community or will persecution continue?
PiS are right-wing populists. The proposed coalition would be liberal/center left. So way less radical right-wing stuff and more support for LGBT rights.
thanks. That does sound good.
right wing populist are out of govt, better rule of law, judiciary, cooperation with EU, maybe even lgbt rights or abortion rights are in <- don’t hold your breath for the last one because that one new christian democrat party is part of that coalition and it’s unknown how will they behave
How could Germany do this?
😂👍
As a German I feel it’s about time that “blame Germany” isn’t enough anymore to win an election in Poland.
ironically german minority didn’t seem to get MP this time, and they used to have two and later one every electoral cycle
edit: based on exit polls, there’s still possibility that they do get it
Good to see their facism to die down the slightest of bits. Hopefully it keeps that way, but considering that Tusk sees no problems with Hungary, I doubt it. Just less rabid facism. But we’ll see if he keeps going after women’s rights, minorities’ rights, Rule of Law and whatnot.
Just get rid of PiS please!
this seems to be done deal
Lot of people don’t seem to understand how multiparty parliamentary coalition democracies work.
PiS was still biggest “oh dear”. Doesn’t matter, what matters is who can pass the confidence vote in Parliament and based on current estimates, PiS can’t.
Oh since you seem to be Polish, who is likely to be put up as PM candidate by the new coalition to the Parliament to vote. I would assume Donald Tusk? Then again I know pretty much nothing of Polish politics.
coalition PM will be most likely Donald Tusk, but before this happens, it’s likely that president Duda will customarily ask PiS, as biggest party, to propose their own PM, who would be Morawiecki, which proposal will be rejected. they can delay new government appointment this way by up to a month
this time there’s coalition but each of these parties is actually also a coalition in a trenchcoat, because this way they avoid 8% threshold and instead have 5% one, so instead of 3 parties in coalition there’s like 8 to 10 depending on how you count
Not great, not terrible.
I think PiS still got way too many votes though.Like in other places. It’s all about disinformation and control of the media. Polish national TV has not mentioned any opposition leader by name in years - and you can imagine how they report on what is happening in the country and the World. It sways people. As we very well know from everywhere.
Also, the weirdo Putinists appear to be underperforming, at least in the exit polls. Hopefully this isn’t just the shy-Tory effect of extremist voters lying about whom they voted for.
two election cycles ago they overperformed in exit polls compared to actual results and got under electoral threshold (4.76%, 5% threshold, polls at like 5.5%). their cope was major laughingstock for a few months
they are known for oversized online presence and habit of picking up highest results from shittiest polling company they can find and blasting it all over as internal propaganda. well they got high on their own supply and today many of party members, some of them who expected getting MP seat but not anymore, got big sad and didn’t participated in party meeting scheduled after conclusion of voting
if you’re looking for shy Tory effect, that works for PiS historically
Come onnnnnn no shield for Hungary!
They have Slovakia as their new shield unfortunately
I’d say that’s not so likely given Slovakia’s actively claimed as “Rightful Magyar Clay” by Fidesz’ ultranationalists
Wouldn’t be surprised if Italy also steps in to stop sanctions against antidemocratic nationalists and populists in the future
Hope exit polls will reflect the truth and you guys don’t pull a Slovakia in these elections. My anxiety was never higher than the last week and would love to see good guys win for once.
