The next move in the markets will largely depend on whether US political friction at home can restrain President Trump’s military campaign or if the conflict broadens further. Trump authorised the strikes without Congressional approval, leading US Democrats to push for a resolution this week to curtail his military authority. Occurring alongside the recent release of the Epstein file, critics suggest unapproved strikes act as a distraction from unreleased files that contained allegations against Trump.

Militarily, Iran appears focused on stretching US and Israeli air defences by targeting assets across the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and even the UK’s Akrotiri base in Cyprus. While Trump has warned that the war could go on for four weeks, the shortage of regional resources makes that timeline difficult to meet.