Assuming you can only press it once, shouldn’t it be $990,000?
But also, it’s much more personal than that. Many people are willing to pay money to change their physical characteristics to be the opposite of what they were born with. Many with male bodies could just pretend to be men for free, but are willing to go though hardships to fix their body to match what’s on the inside.
It could just as well said be a boy instead of girl and would still be about as hard of a question on average.
I’m not sure if this is how you would approach this (mathematical) problem. This is my reasoning:
In order for you to choose the girl, the expected value of the money must be worth less than the expected value of being a girl, adjusting for the probabilities.
It’s an expected value calculation. What’s the value of being turned into a girl (G) that brings the EV here to zero. It’s 0.99 x $1m + 0.01 x G = 0. So G = -$99m.
The question boils down to: Is being a girl/woman today, where you live, so bad that it takes more than 99 million dollars to make up for it?
Assuming you can only press it once, shouldn’t it be $990,000?
But also, it’s much more personal than that. Many people are willing to pay money to change their physical characteristics to be the opposite of what they were born with. Many with male bodies could just pretend to be men for free, but are willing to go though hardships to fix their body to match what’s on the inside.
It could just as well said be a boy instead of girl and would still be about as hard of a question on average.
I’m not sure if this is how you would approach this (mathematical) problem. This is my reasoning:
In order for you to choose the girl, the expected value of the money must be worth less than the expected value of being a girl, adjusting for the probabilities.
99% × $1M < 1% × girl ⇔ 100 × 99% × $1M < girl ⇔ $99M < girlIf anyone would like to correct this, I’m listening.
We need to bring utility into this. It’s a game theory optimization problem.
It’s an expected value calculation. What’s the value of being turned into a girl (G) that brings the EV here to zero. It’s 0.99 x $1m + 0.01 x G = 0. So G = -$99m.