Its backers should pray for a speedy victory—but plan for a long struggle
  • tal
    4•9 months ago

    This plan is not working. Despite heroic efforts and breaches of Russian defences near Robotyne, Ukraine has liberated less than 0.25% of the territory that Russia occupied in June.

    The aim in the counteroffensive was not to gain a maximum amount of territory in the directly-captured area, but to alter the strategic situation.

    If Ukraine wanted to maximize the near-term territory captured, they would have attacked where Russia had put weakest defenses rather than strongest. However, that wouldn’t have accomplished anything beyond the territory capture itself.

    Reaching the Sea of Azov will probably not end the war.

    However, it will place Russia in a disadvantageous situation if Russia wants to continue to occupy southern Ukraine, as well as Crimea. Russian supply lines will be at risk, and Ukraine will be able to leverage interior lines, and I would not be incredibly surprised if Russia pulls out of southwestern territory they occupy to Crimea.

    That is desirable for Ukraine whether the war is short or long.

    The counteroffensive has penetrated Russian fortifications. If Russia were simply building out more fortifications to the south, that would be one thing. But they do not, from what I have seen, appear to be doing so, I would assume because they cannot build fortifications not under Ukrainian artillery fire that will hold enough land to retain the land bridge.