Westminster Voting Intention:
🌹 LAB: 50% (+4) 🌳 CON: 25% (-4) 🔶 LDM: 9% (-3) 🌍 GRN: 7% (+2) ➡️ RFM: 4% (=) 🎗️ SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @DeltapollUK, 17-21 Aug. Changes w/ 9-11 Aug.
Flavible:
| Party | Pred % | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|
| CON 🌳 | 25.0% | 130 |
| LAB 🌹 | 50.0% | 427 |
| LD 🔶 | 9.0% | 35 |
| REFUK ➡️ | 4.0% | 0 |
| Green 🌍 | 7.0% | 1 |
| SNP 🎗️ | 3% | 31 |
| PC 💮 | 1% | 4 |
Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON 🌳 | 44.7% | 376 | 25.0% | 0 | 297 | -297 | 79 |
| LAB 🌹 | 33.0% | 197 | 50.0% | 330 | 0 | +330 | 527 |
| LIB 🔶 | 11.8% | 8 | 9% | 11 | 2 | +9 | 17 |
| Reform ➡️ | 2.1% | 0 | 4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green 🌍 | 2.8% | 1 | 7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| SNP 🎗️ | 4.0% | 48 | 3.1% | 0 | 44 | -44 | 4 |
| PlaidC 💮 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.4% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| Other ⬜️ | 1.1% | 0 | 1.1% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| N.Ire ⬜️ | - | 18 | - | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
Scotland EC Break-Down (👀)
| Con | Lab | Lib | REF | Green | SNP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 31% |
I’d really love to see the conservatives completely collapse like this, although I suspect it isn’t going to happen. One can dream though.
We need electoral reform though to ensure the Tories never again get into power without a coalition partner. That’s not going to happen if Labour get a massive majority.
That would be an absolutely crushing result.
They say you should never interrupt your enemy while he’s making a mistake, and on that basis Starmer hasn’t had to say a word.
He’s definitely not making Corbyn’s mistake of announcing new ideas or Miliband’s mistake of eating a bacon buttie. Genius really.
If the Tories keep on with doubling down with the crazy then this will only facilitate a more crushing crash in their numbers. There Tory MPs who are actually asking for Truss style tax cuts. The crass stupidity in this party is incredible.
It’s always fascinating to me, as a dork who follows politics too much, how little anything has any clear effect on the polling. Fastest wage growth in history? Who gives a shit. Inflation falling? So what. Put the refugees on the barge/immediately take them off the barge? What the hell. Starmer walks back some other pledge? Lab +4.
