I think it highly unlikely a drone just happened to fall out of the sky and hit the sarcophagus. The ones that fall out of the sky rarely hit anything. Ukraine is vast.
I think it also incredibly unlikely that this is a false flag from the Ukrainians. Poland already said in the early days that any nuclear fallout that enters their territory from the Zaporizhzhia plant when there was concerns about an act of terror from the Russians would be considered an act of war and that they would trigger article 5 based on it.
Ukraine could have false flagged the shit out of that to drag NATO in and chose not to so this is definitely Russian.
The chances of a drone “losing itself” and “just hitting” something like that are zero. Even if it magically happened somehow, it’s still Russia’s fault for waging war on a neighbor, and they would deserve 100% of the response.
But to be fair,Tyou shouldn’t count all of Ukraine’s territory, but the Russian controlled ground and the front line plus maybe 50km or so deep into Ukraine’s territory.
I did consider that, but many (most maybe?) of the Shaheds would be launched from well behind the front lines so would be traveling over occupied Ukraine was my thinking. I have no idea on the actual stats there.
Wait so you mean I’m still on the hook if I launch a bunch of ordinance harmlessly at my neighbor’s porch, but I accidentally hit their child’s bedroom? Well shit.
Everyday close to third of shahed drones get lost due to e-warfare, with more than hundred of these drones used every day it is probable that one of those that was intended for Kyiv ended up in Chernobyl.
I think it highly unlikely a drone just happened to fall out of the sky and hit the sarcophagus. The ones that fall out of the sky rarely hit anything. Ukraine is vast.
I think it also incredibly unlikely that this is a false flag from the Ukrainians. Poland already said in the early days that any nuclear fallout that enters their territory from the Zaporizhzhia plant when there was concerns about an act of terror from the Russians would be considered an act of war and that they would trigger article 5 based on it.
Ukraine could have false flagged the shit out of that to drag NATO in and chose not to so this is definitely Russian.
By definition they hit something, it’s just not considered important when said something is a patch of grass or a medium sized rock.
The chances of a drone “losing itself” and “just hitting” something like that are zero. Even if it magically happened somehow, it’s still Russia’s fault for waging war on a neighbor, and they would deserve 100% of the response.
I mean… not 0 but pretty damn close to it (semantics, I know)
I just did the numbers for shits and giggles.
Ukraine is 635,000 square kilometres = 653 billion square metres. The “New Safe” that was hit is roughly 43000 square metres.
To randomly hit it (not realistic I know, but it gives an interesting result) as I understand it would be just shy of 1 in 15 million.
So you’re telling me there is a chance
But to be fair,Tyou shouldn’t count all of Ukraine’s territory, but the Russian controlled ground and the front line plus maybe 50km or so deep into Ukraine’s territory.
I did consider that, but many (most maybe?) of the Shaheds would be launched from well behind the front lines so would be traveling over occupied Ukraine was my thinking. I have no idea on the actual stats there.
To be fair you should count Poland territory too, since apparently drones have been flying and crashing in there too.
Wait so you mean I’m still on the hook if I launch a bunch of ordinance harmlessly at my neighbor’s porch, but I accidentally hit their child’s bedroom? Well shit.
Everyday close to third of shahed drones get lost due to e-warfare, with more than hundred of these drones used every day it is probable that one of those that was intended for Kyiv ended up in Chernobyl.
Considering E-warfare; and drones designated to continue on their already prescribed path - it isn’t that unlikely; if there was fighting in the area…
The more likely option is terrible communication I’d wager