While forecasters generally disagree about the expected path of monetary policy, the level of disagreement as measured in the New York Fed’s Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) has increased substantially since 2022. For instance, the dispersion of expectations about the future path of the target federal funds rate (FFR) has widened significantly. What explains the current elevated disagreement in FFR forecasts?
Why did the court viziers of the Pharaohs disagree over the meanings of the cracks in the burned bones used in fortune telling?
Because they each had their own interests that would be advanced? Noo, nooo, they just wanted to give Pharaoh the best most accurate forecast.