Nate Silver’s polling tracker now has Trump slightly favored to win (50.2%) the election. While this shift appears small, it has drawn attention because it pushes Trump just past the halfway mark in forecasts for winning the Electoral College.
Silver explains that while Trump’s rise over recent weeks is significant, and his polling model, is designed to minimize overreactions to new data to provide more accurate long-term predictions (i.e., it’s likely a “real” effect), this doesn’t in any way mean Trump “will” win, and the race remains highly competitive, especially in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which are critical to determining the outcome.
That ‘momentum’ is voter apathy starting since Harris moved her campaign to the right to court the ever elusive centrist voters. Imagine the lead if she doubled down on Walz’ popular policies instead of Biden’s unpopular policies.
You get downvoted for it, but it’s absolutely true. She had a real opportunity to distinguish herself from Biden, and for a brief moment I thought she would. Then she shifted to the right to draw in centrists.
Users here can stick their heads in the sand all they want, but like with the Clinton campaign, it won’t change the election outcome.
She’s handing Trump the race by imitating Biden. I say this as someone who will likely vote for her anyway: this is becoming a disaster for her. She cannot afford to lose Muslim voters in Michigan, and the continued bleeding of Hispanic voters spells even longer-term problems for the party.
Definitely. If Harris loses, it’s entirely on her campaigning strategy. I won’t blame the voters. She has had every opportunity to advocate for popular policies that would significantly boost her support and galvanize more voters. Especially on Israel Palestine.
Trump is historically unpopular. His approval rating has stayed steady for years. Even multiple assassination attempts didn’t move the needle, unlike every other instance in American history. People don’t like Trump. But there are only so many voters that will go out of their way to vote for not-Trump.
Walz is a great example of how people respond to popular progressive policies that can meaningfully improve their lived experience. So is Bernie, he’s still popular for even Republican voters, because even they can recognize how those policies like Medicare for All, Raising Minimum Wage, and investments in public services will improve their lives.