- cross-posted to:
- nyt_gift_articles
- cross-posted to:
- nyt_gift_articles
For many millions of Americans, time seemed to move differently under President Donald Trump.
There was no breathing room — no calm in the eye of the storm. From beginning to end — from the “American carnage” inaugural on Jan. 20, 2017, to the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 — it felt as though the country was in constant flux, each week a decade. We lurched from dysfunction to chaos and back again, eventually crashing on the shores of the nation’s worst domestic crisis since the Great Depression.
For many, if not most, of these Americans, the choice this November is no choice at all. They escaped Polyphemus once; they don’t intend to return to his den.
There are other voters who take a very different view. To them, Trump’s term was a time of peace and prosperity. They don’t register the pandemic or the subsequent economic crisis as part and parcel of the administration. They don’t hold Trump responsible.
In fact, one of the most striking findings in a number of recent polls is the extent to which a large portion of the electorate has given Trump a pass for his last year in office. For example, in an April CBS News poll of key battleground states, roughly 62 percent of registered voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin said that when they look back at 2020, their state’s economy was good. In the moment, however, a majority of voters in those states disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy.
…
Again, Trump presided over a recession worsened by his total failure to manage the coronavirus. As Covid deaths mounted, Trump spread misinformation and left states scrambling for needed supplies. It was not until after the March stock market crash that the White House issued its plan to blunt the economic impact of the pandemic. And the most generous provisions found in the CARES Act, including a vast expansion of unemployment benefits, were negotiated into the bill by Democratic lawmakers.
None of this seems to matter to voters. “The economy” under Trump is simply the one that existed from Jan. 20, 2017, to March 13, 2020, when the White House declared the coronavirus a national public health emergency. For everything else after that date, the former president gets a pass.
No other president has gotten this kind of excused absence for mismanaging a crisis that happened on his watch. We don’t bracket the secession crisis from our assessment of James Buchanan or the Great Depression from our judgment of Herbert Hoover or the hostage crisis in Iran from our assessment of Jimmy Carter. And for good reason: The presidency was designed for crisis. It was structured with the power and autonomy needed for handling the acute challenges of national life.
Well I’m not, and my state is not. The problem is all the other states.
Check the map, here’s how the majority of states are going to break:
The seven beige states are the ones that were close enough in 2020 that Trump tried the fake elector scheme to steal the election.
Well, how’s that going for Biden now?
Nevada - Trump +12 to +14.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
Arizona - Trump +6 to +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/
New Mexico - For some reason, the current poll only shows Trump vs. Kennedy and Biden vs. Kennedy with Kennedy winning both times. Not reliable as a) Kennedy is not even on the ballot there, and b) The race is not going to be artificially limited like that.
Leaving it taupe as the last viable poll was last August.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/
RFK’s ballot map.
https://elections2024.thehill.com/
Wisconsin - Dead heat. Four recent polls show tie, Biden +2, Trump +1, Trump +1.
Michigan - Dead heat. Four recent polls show Biden +1, Biden +3, Trump +2, Trump +7.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/
Pennsylvania - Trump +3 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/
Georgia - Trump +6 to +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/
So here’s what that looks like… even with the tossup states still being tossups, Biden can’t win.
Heck, give PA, MI, WI and NM to Biden… he still loses.
We’re months out, and polling seems to be getting more and more unreliable, I wouldn’t put any stock in these kinds of polls.
For example, I’ll be amazed if MN goes red.
There’s no way Trump wins Minnesota.
He’s way out in front there now.
Their governor is a Social Democrat and is popular
Trump is not winning Minnesota
Although MN does also have a sizable Muslim immigrant population, hence Ilhan Omar’s election. Which means that perhaps Biden should pivot hard on Gaza if he wants to firmly win there or Michigan
Yup, and that explains the current polling.
I’m in GA, and I’ve never answered one of these bullshit polls. And no way in hell will I vote for Sleepy Don Snoreleone. This is all just guesswork
Polling isn’t based on the participation of a single voter.
The point is, there’s a lot of people like me. Not going to sit around and fill out some stupid poll, but I’ll show up to vote
Why is Minnesota red in your maps? In reality, MN is about as solidly blue as Ohio is solidly red.
And MN is a significantly bluer state than Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin
Also, why tf is West Virginia blue? It’s the second reddest state in the country behind Oklahoma
Default position from the 270 to Win interactive map, it also reflects current polling.
As another user noted, large Muslim population upset with Biden over Gaza.
WV was an error on my part tapping VA which has been reliably blue lately. I’ll have to go back and fix that.
Why do your maps have Minnesota as a red state and West Virginia as a blue one?
For MN, it’s the default position from the 270 to Win interactive map, it also reflects current polling.
As another user noted, large Muslim population upset with Biden over Gaza.
WV was an error on my part tapping VA which has been reliably blue lately. I’ll have to go back and fix that.