• that_ginger_one@feddit.ukOPEnglish
    4·
    1 year ago

    Flavible:

    Party Pred % Pred Seats
    SNP 35.0% 18
    LAB 32.0% 29
    CON 21.0% 7
    LD 7.0% 5
    REFUK 2.0% 0
    Green 2.0% 0

    Turns out I’m an idiot and Flavible do let you select Scotland Only, different story from them and the others.

    PrincipleFish & ElectionPolling.co.uk

    • Noit@lemm.eeEnglish
      3·
      1 year ago

      Interesting that it suggests Paisley and Renfrewshire stays SNP, with Black saying she’s stepping down I think it has a real chance of going to Labour.

      • that_ginger_one@feddit.ukOPEnglish
        2·
        1 year ago

        I have a feeling (because I know nothing) that EC and PrincipleFish either use a uniform swing approach or a very lightly weighted model, where as Flavible and EC have an actual weighted model but even then the models can’t really account for the pull of an individual MP and their…electoral inertia?

        Paisley is a real Labour target but Mhairi’s majority is big enough that it isn’t caught by uniform swings and the weighted models aren’t picking it up on these numbers probably/possibly because the model isn’t updated with he rnot standing…or, the weighting for incumbent MP and/or popular incumbent MP is basically a finger in the air educated guess from the model creator, which isn’t really a model.

        But what do I know