Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory
www.nature.com
Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed.
    • kadu@lemmy.world
      495·
      9 months ago

      Sorry to tell you this, but if we suddenly woke up tomorrow and made all the possible drastic changes in a single day, it would take well over a decade for the effects to even start setting in.

      The chaos we are living today could only have been prevented by starting many years in the past. So is the reality of very long geological cycles and feedback loops.

      • Coasting0942@reddthat.com
        51·
        9 months ago

        it would take well over a decade for the effects to even start setting in.

        lol. Every fascist wannabe around the world would win in a landslide.

          • Coasting0942@reddthat.com
            8·
            9 months ago

            As more extreme policies become required, fascists gain power because of the increasing disruption to the way of life that the average person in the region is accustomed to.

            “They’re taking away your hamburgers, your cars, etc etc”

            • umbrella@lemmy.ml
              2·
              9 months ago

              i think the people who were gonna be fascists anyway are already drunk on that mentality, regardless of what we tell them at this point.

              i think theres already a foundation being built in the world’s stage to fight back.

              i guess we will have to see on that one.

      • Ultraviolet@lemmy.worldEnglish
        2·
        9 months ago

        Drastic measures can mean prevention, mitigation, or retribution. It’s too late for prevention, so right now mitigation is the next best thing.

        • kadu@lemmy.world
          1·
          9 months ago

          Mitigation follows the exact same “extremely delayed effects” logic I explained.

    • BestBouclettes@jlai.lu
      4·
      9 months ago

      Juuuust a bit more, and a bit more, and more just to be sure those guys aren’t trying to scam us into changing the world to a better place

  • Hotzilla
    6·
    9 months ago

    Wasn’t there a YouTube video few months ago were one climate scientist talked that they removed few models from the accepted list of climate models because those models started showing rapid heating. And the reason for their removal was that they predicted too fast heating, that has never happened. And these models were accurate in the past.

    Edit: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4&t=668s&pp=ygUWcmVtb3ZlZCBjbGltYXRlIG1vZGVscw%3D%3D

    • Hanrahan@slrpnk.netEnglish
      9·
      9 months ago

      That’s sort of misleading though. They say they discarded the hot model runs becase paleoclimatology research tended to suggest suggest that couldn’t happen. Hausfather etal. Andrew Dressler was involved and had a response on Mastodon

      However :) people like Professor Janson Box etal suggested it will happen way faster then most models predict.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTdJRy1uqsc

      The precautionary principal (because we have no planet B) should have us doing everything we can to get in front of this. Worst case scenario, rich asshole high emitters have to live like ordldinary folk more quickly. We can keep ignoring it until we collapse civilization like John Schellenhuber etal suggest, which does seem to be the option we’ve chosen.

      I don’t think it matters either way, we ignore it because it’s inconvenient not becase we dont have the tech. We have long known how to ride a bicycle and stop flying for example… we just keep emitting, emissions increased again last year.

    • silence7@slrpnk.netOPM
      2·
      9 months ago

      The last big community run of models had a bunch of them use a new cloud model, which forecast much more heating in the future because they stopped having clouds form at some latitudes.

      That hasn’t happened, and isn’t what’s responsible for the temperature jump in 2023.