Polls aren’t votes.
Vote 🔵🔵🔵
No, they’re just the best, most scientifically proven way of understanding how the votes will likely turn out.
Get your head out of your ass, please. We need action (in the form of a new candidate), not more hopium and copium.
A new candidate is not coming. Other Dems decided not to run in the primaries.
These are the choices. Now what ya gonna do with that?
Move to Canada?
I’m happy to have been incorrect
I’m happy we didn’t listen to people like you!
Fired up - ready to go!
Oh, I don’t think people like me have anything to do with it. I’d vote, I’ll vote
So I thought to myself, why is ozma / NYT / the Hill all of a sudden super interested in swing states, when before it was almost all talking about what the national polls show
And so I looked up what the NYT poll said about national numbers. The answer will shock you!
(Polls are crap, in general; I’m more just pointing out the hypocrisy of freaking the fuck out about Biden’s numbers tanking because of the debate, then when they don’t, pivoting seamlessly to freaking the fuck out because he’s 3 percentage points behind and he’ll never catch up and he’s being a moron to stay in, to now seamlessly freaking the fuck out about a new, however perfectly valid, way of looking at the polling, when he pulls ahead by 2-3 points nationally.)
Don’t trust the lying mainstream media!
You know our election is done state by state, right? Less hopium and copium, and more attention to the facts please. If Biden loses just one swing state, his odds of winning the electoral college drop to single digits. No matter how many millions of people turn out in California or New York, this election is going to come down to 10,000 votes across 6 swing states. And those 10,000 folks are telling us loud and clear, “BIDEN IS TOO OLD”.
Will you listen?
Polls have increased in accuracy every election since 2016, even then it was more democrats and the media ignoring more state specific polls that showed trouble. Pretending this isn’t a huge problem is head in the sand denial.
Mozz, if you’re still fighting to keep Biden in the race, you’re helping Trump at this point.
I stick up for Biden on a lot of things because I think he did a great job domestically, and because his opponent is clearly so horrifying that he’ll make it impossible even to maintain Biden’s improvements, let alone go beyond him to the places that the country actually needs to go. But I’m actually fine with replacing him - just, according to some kind of coherent plan for what the Democrats should do instead, and a convincing case that it’ll be an improvement. In that case, then sure, let’s rock and roll.
I do react negatively to just a shrieking tide of misleadingly negative news about him - like, say, reacting to the news that he’s now up by 3 points in a national poll by pivoting to some other thing to talk about, using a framing that creates a narrative that he’s steadily losing support week by week and it’s insane that he’s even considering staying in the race, because it’s a lost cause. That I would fight against, yeah - not because I necessarily think it’s proven that him staying in is the right answer, but because that narrative is a bunch of transparent horseshit unsupported by the facts.
Hope this helps clear up the confusion.
You, as well as I do, know national polls are not a good indicator. Swing states, electoral college are what wins it.
I bet I will not need to look further than one week back in your postings to find some histronics about how Biden is behind by however many single-digit points in a national poll and that’s a big deal
Edit: Found it! It was an inference from a single percentage point of difference between him and Trump in a national poll.
Poll finds Biden damaged by debate; with Harris and Clinton best positioned to win
The national poll, conducted and commissioned by the firm Bendixen & Amandi after Biden’s politically disastrous debate and shared exclusively with POLITICO, found Biden trailing Trump, 42 percent to 43 percent.
Vice President Kamala Harris is now running ahead of Trump, 42 percent to 41 percent, the survey found.
Pretty cool that we found out now that he’s no longer damaged by the debate, since his national poll numbers are the metric – right?
If you watched the debate and can still imagine a scenario where Biden wins Michigan (and the rest of the electoral college), I have some investments I’d like to show you…
Keep pushing for Biden Mozz. You’re fighting the good fight buddy. He’s doing great against a convicted felon and the worst POTUS we’ve ever had. Right? Biden is running away with the landslide. /s
That’s the spirit!
And if Biden is confirmed as the nominee you’re going to support him 100% right? Are the people who don’t vote for Biden (assuming he’s on the ballot) also helping Trump?
Hey Mega, I’m entering this debate late, so I’m not sure why any vote on any side would be expected to support someone 100%. I can’t think of anyone I’ve ever supported 100%. Is that a requirement somewhere?
Any yes, for a bunch of people – but not all – not voting (D) for President (and just about every other race) is a help to Trump. The most obvious and dire case is people in swing states. It matters less for solid blue and red states, but it would be helpful to show a strong and active rejection of Trump given that he and his people have already announced they will be contesting the results. If you are not a U.S. citizen, or otherwise ineligible to vote in the U.S., then congratulations, it doesn’t matter if you don’t vote for Biden.
Withing a FPTP system like ours, I think when one candidate is a fascist and the other is not, yes you should vote for the non fascist candidate 100% of the time. This is the situation we will find ourselves in November regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.
I was pointing out that Ozma is once again being disingenuous with their concern that the other poster was somehow helping Trump by supporting Joe Biden’s candidacy. Ozma has no qualms with Trump, a fascist, winning the election. They simply want Joe Biden to lose. I think it’s important to point out those motivations.
And you’re correct about certain states having more weight, but that doesn’t mean we need to create a permission structure for others to stay home. The priority has to be keeping Trump out of office, not Joe Biden.
I can’t predict how a split in the timeline would resolve on paths where Biden is and is not replaced as the Democratic candidate, but I do worry that Trump will win if things don’t change. If I KNEW that Biden or Kamala Harris (or someone else) could beat Trump, I would back whichever I knew had a chance. In my family, one is sure the only chance Democrats have is to stick with Joe and another that they must Ditch Joe for a new voice with a new message to attract new voters.
I don’t know. I can’t argue about it because I don’t have any data for either case. I care, but my concerns have no where to go, so instead my current conflict is over how amazing the pro-Union speech was … at the RNC.
Withing a FPTP system like ours, I think when one candidate is a fascist and the other is not, yes you should vote for the non fascist candidate 100% of the time.
You mean the one doing a genocide?
If the other option is even more genocide, yes. Is that really a question?
Okay, but now you’re voting for the lesser of two fascists. It was never “one candidate is a fascist and the other is not”.
If every reluctant Biden voter joins us to demand Biden step aside or joined us in declaring “no ceasefire, no votes”, he’d have no choice but to do it. Yet, because of every enabler like you, Biden believes he doesn’t need to drop out and doesn’t need to force Israel to end its genocide. He believes he can do anything he wants and not lose a single vote.
Many of us like to ask ourselves, “What would I do if I was alive during slavery? Or the Jim Crow South? Or apartheid? What would I do if my country was committing genocide?”
The answer is, you’re doing it. Right now.
No. I’ve said it many times here. I can’t morally support a genocider. I’m in California so my vote won’t make a difference anyways.
While I too am horrified by how the Palestinians have been forgotten, abused, and annihilated, this is Bibi’s thing. Bibi’s been stoking his base on that fire forever. It is not Biden’s fault that he happened to be in office while this latest round took place, but Biden has been more compassionate towards Palestinians than … well let’s just say more than several other leaders I could name.
Even if Biden personally murdered every single person who’s died in Gaza, Trump has promised to do worse. Bibi, Captain Genocide himself, wants Trump to win. I’m sorry, “I’m not voting for Biden because of genocide” just doesn’t make any goddamn sense in this situation and I don’t buy it.
That’s why I’m not voting for either genocider/pro-genocider.
That’s like opting to do nothing and get force fed a bag of broken glass when the options were eat a plastic bag or eat a plastic bag full of glass.
Bidens only being more passionate towards them now because of the backlash he’s received for continuing to help Israel
Oh fuck off; your account has been shitting on Biden non-stop for the last year and in our system all that does is help trump.
Block me if you don’t want to stay up on political news.
And yet, if I point this out (in great alarm because I DON’T WANT ANOTHER TRUMP TERM) I will be accused of trying to harm the outcome of the election. Thanks a lot.
we’re so fuckin cooked lmao, the dnc has straight up given up. the Bidenist regime and it’s stubborn refusal to negotiate with its voter base has condemned the US to another trump presidency. I hope they sleep well in the bed they made (they will, 4 years of trump won’t affect them at all. after all, they’re not the ones headed to the camps)
they’re not the ones headed to the camps
I wouldn’t be too sure about that.
See you in the camps comrade! Ugh.
My armchair cynic theory is that RFK negotiated with Trump to drop out and endorse him, in exchange for appointment as EPA head or some policy concession. Meanwhile, disaffected by poor performance and his refusal to drop out, the youth vote and other key Biden demographics either stay home in outsize numbers, or vote for Jill Stein or Cornell West. Trump would win every swing state and possibly some others if that plays out.
FDA, so he can ban all the vaccines
Biden needs to go.
Or people could actually go out and tell others to vote.
I don’t see just changing candidates doing anything; in fact, you’d probably get a ‘where were all the primaries?’ backlash
I voted in the primary. There was one dude on my ballot. Does that sound like a fair election to you?
Me too. I voted for Palestine. Didn’t win.
Did you pass a petition for another candidate?
It’s not about just getting people out to vote, people don’t want to vote for Biden. This isn’t apathy, they see him as unfit.
Critically, in a two-party FPTP situation, you’d better think he’s less fit than Trump if your advice is to not vote Biden.
I’m not advising anyone, I’m stating a simple fact; Biden is showing all the signs of losing because people don’t like him and he’s too old.
He is de-energizing the party. Him. Biden is.
Approximately 100% of Biden voters would vote for his replacement. A non-zero amount of voters would also vote for this person. At this point sticking with Biden is conceding the election.
Or people could actually go out and tell others to vote.
Sure. This has been the strategy for a while, and has resulted in likely Biden voters becoming less engaged due to genocide and the general percieved cognitive decline as of late, and Trump voters becoming more engaged with events like the failed assassination attempt.
Biden voters are largely going to end up holding their nose, while Trump voterd are largely going to gleefully show up in droves, if conditions continue.
I don’t think this is a useful strategy, and will be a repeat of 2016.
I don’t see just changing candidates doing anything; in fact, you’d probably get a ‘where were all the primaries?’ backlash
If the majority of people support swapping out Biden, I think you’ll find that it won’t result in fewer voters. The DNC could also organize an emergency Primary, too. Doing nothing is handing Trump the win on a silver platter.
deleted by creator
So then we’re screwed already. Oof.
It’s called ‘learned helplessness.’
They tell you that you’re screwed and you believe them.
I don’t want to be one of the people who lays down and does nothing because someone posted something
“We”, he says
While I don’t think Biden should have run for a second term, that’s not the scenario we live in. He is running, no viable Dems ran against him in the primaries. He will be their nomination. Anything else is almost Fantasyland.
Now what ya gonna do?
Watch democracy burn and drink a nice whiskey?
Happy to be incorrect. Though a year ago would have been much better
Buckle up! The wild ride begins!
Finally some good news.
Please vote for Trump, if you don’t care about internal politics - think about millions of Ukrainians who are trapped in Ukraine right now, and for whom Trump’s presidency (and his promise to end the war) is the only hope to survive!Hahaha right. How is serving Ukraine on a platter to the Russians somehow ending the war? Because that’s what that felon child rapist’s plan is, to have Russia win the invasion that they started.
I wonder if you come across a kid being raped like trump raped kids, would you say, “just let him finish inside you and stop resisting?” Wait nvm I’m sure that’s exactly what you would say seeing as how you support that child rapist.
Trump didn’t say he will “serve Ukraine on a platter to the Russians”, he said he will force both sides to negotiate. Negotiations is how the wars end.
The rest of your reply is just baseless accusations which people resort to when they don’t have any logical arguments ;)
Lmfao fuck your traitor fuhrer he bows to Putin and his band of Nazis.
Is calling Trump a fuhrer and a Nazi really not ironic to you, considering all the documented Nazism in Ukraine (our main “hero” that we rename streets after and so on is Stepan Bandera, now please go and read a wikipedia page about him. After that, please ask a fellow Pole what they think about that great guy) that Biden is supporting?
So logically speaking it’s Biden who looks like a Nazi, but let’s hear your arguments why you think otherwise. Of course provided that you have any, and “Nazist” is not just a mean word for you that you call people who disagree with you :)There’s lot of documented Nazism in Ukraine
Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine
Therefore trump cannot be a nazi despite his plan to implement ‘Project 2025’
You have the logical abilities of squirrel shit
I didn’t really look into ‘Project 2025’ as it seems to be mostly about internal American politics, which I’m not too interested in.
Your only argument seem to be ad hominem :)
Ad hominem is to attack the persons character. I clearly stated that your logic is squirrel shit.
Any parties manifesto in the majority, will be about internal politics, but those policies will ultimately impact their relationship with external countries and shape what their foreign policies will be. You would have to be a fucking imbecile to think otherwise. (Again, not an ad hominem before you start wanking yourself into a lather)
From the wikipedia:
Often nowadays this term refers to a rhetorical strategy where the speaker attacks the character, motive, or some other attribute of the person making an argument rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself.
You’re seem to be fitting the definition quite well ;)
Saying that your argument is not ad hominem and backing it up with another ad hominem unfortunately doesn’t change that it is.But okay, let’s talk about logic then if that’s what you want!
I’ve asked folks to vote Trump to save people’s lives that are currently being murdered thanks to (among others) that “great” guy Biden.
You called Trump a Fuhrer and Nazi (without backing it up with anything at all at that point).
I pointed out that it is ironic calling Trump a Nazi, while you are (presumably) supporting Biden who is quite literally supporting Nazi government.
You’ve made a conclusion (and even framed it as a quote) that I’ve said “Therefore trump cannot be a nazi despite his plan to implement ‘Project 2025’”, despite neither me saying “trump cannot be a nazi” nor you even bringing “Project 2025” into the discussion beforehand.Well, from that I can only make a conclusion that you have “logical abilities of squirrel shit” :)
And getting back to your argument - supporting a Nazi government seems to be a way better indicator of being a Nazi than some “Project 2025” 🤷♂️
You are the opposite of correct, what a ridiculous take.
Well, feel free to ridicule this take, what’s wrong with what I said?
If Biden is elected again, the war will continue and hundreds of thousands more people will die, that may include my friends and my family and people I know.
If Trump wins, there might finally be peace.
Are you saying that if you were in my situation, and the people getting murdered/wounded were people you know, and not just people that you’ve heard about only from the TV, you would still root for the guy who will make sure as many of them dies as possible (as long as it hurts Russia as well) instead of the guy who says he will end the war?Total bullshit: Russia started this war and Trump’s version of ending it is handing a win to Putin, the absolute shit-stain of a human being who illegally annexed Crimea and started this horrific war.
Fuck all the way off with your lying bullshit takes. Putin and Trump are evil pedo-pals who don’t give a fuck about humanity, what’s right, or anything else that doesn’t involve making them even wealthier and more powerful.
Not voting for Biden is a vote for these fascist scumbags who will destroy everything to get what they want if they’re allowed.
You are a fool or a liar, perhaps both.
Yeah, I’m not surprised by accusations of lying :)
You know what would really surprise me? Anyone actually disproving anything I say instead of just using ad hominems.
You’ve reported my message as “Blatant disinformation” - it must be very easy to disprove such blatant disinformation, I wonder why you didn’t do it and instead prefer to use insults?.. Hm…EDIT: I see your message was deleted :( To be clear - I didn’t report it or anything, I’d very much enjoy seeing you disprove the “blatant misinformation” I posted.
You’re a fucking monster, there’s a special place in hell for people like you.
Whoever deleted that post can eat shit too. Way to support this disgusting bullshit.
Oh and I forgot to add
Way to support this disgusting bullshit.
^ This is what Biden voters think about saving lives of hundreds of thousands of innocent people - “disgusting bullshit”. Those are definitely the good guys that deserve your vote :)
Ah I see, so when you say that I post “blatant propaganda”, you don’t mean that I post information that is false, you simply mean that you dislike it. Gotcha :)
Lmao
Vote for him and not only will he wreck the country, he’ll hand Ukraine over to Russia! Two good things!
Well, I’m not the one to discuss “wrecking the country” with, as I’m not American I don’t follow closely American politics except for things related to destroying my country :)
As for handing Ukraine over to Russia - that’s not what he promises though, is it? He promised to force both sides to negotiate. So basically the only thing that will save lives. Biden promises to just continue the war, thus contributing to more death and suffering.
Oh wow so you support Trump but don’t follow American politics? Color my surprised. If you were American, you’d be fit right in with his base
Unless you’re in a handful who aren’t at risk anyway (Russia, China, NK, etc), a Trump presidency increases the chance of your country being destroyed.
Negotiating with an invader means losing at least part of your country. You think Trump - who lives in Putin’s pocket - is going to propose a handshake and an apology?
Oh wow so you support Trump but don’t follow American politics?
I follow that part of American politics that impacts me. Murdering people I know, sponsoring war on the territories where I lived and where my family/friends still live on, turning my country into the biggest mass prison of our time - that impacts me. “Project 2025” and whatever else doesn’t impact me (or at least impacts me way less). So yes, I support Trump based on the things that are important to me, I’m not really interested in USA’s internal politics because it doesn’t affect me, what’s wrong with that?
a Trump presidency increases the chance of your country being destroyed.
It’s exactly the opposite. Ukraine (or rather, more importantly - people in Ukraine) right now is being destroyed by Biden. Trump is the only hope there is for people trapped in Ukraine to survive.
Negotiating with an invader means losing at least part of your country.
Yes, that’s how it works. The best time to negotiate was… well, any time in the past (but especially so at the start of the war). The second best time is now.
You think Trump - who lives in Putin’s pocket - is going to propose a handshake and an apology?
I think (or rather I hope), he will do what he said he will do - force both sides to negotiate, which will lead to people stop being murdered/wounded and suffering.
Where do you live that suffering would be reduced by a Trump presidency?
The only thing that needs to happen in Ukraine is for Russia to get the fuck out. Bam, problem solved. War over. No more dead Ukrainians. A Trump presidency will not end the suffering - it will just legitimize it.
Where do you live that suffering would be reduced by a Trump presidency?
I live outside of Ukraine (but only because I left before the war started, as otherwise I would be trapped together with millions of other Ukrainians), so fortunately personally I’m not suffering (my biggest “suffering” is that our government now denies to give people new passports abroad, and if I come back I will be trapped just like all the other people there, but well, it’s nothing compared to what other people have to endure).
For those who are staying trapped in Ukraine though, Trump presidency would (hopefully) absolutely reduce their suffering.The only thing that needs to happen in Ukraine is for Russia to get the fuck out. Bam, problem solved. No more dead Ukrainians.
Most likely it would indeed solve the problem.
But it is not happening and Russia does not “gets the fuck out”.A Trump presidency will not end the suffering - it will just legitimize it.
What do you mean?
If he follows through with his promises to end the war by forcing both sides to negotiate, it absolutely will end the suffering.You are dreaming if you think handing over a significant portion of your country to an invader will be the end of it.
You know how Russia took Chrimea and no one really did anything about it? That’s why they invaded Ukraine. Trump will “stop” this invasion but it won’t be the last - and it certainly won’t stop at Ukraine. It also sends a very clear signal to China that there will be no repercussions if they invade Taiwan.
You are way too short-sighted with your assessment. Trump and Putin are both shady criminals and you’re completely ignoring history
He will force Ukraine to become part of Ruzzia’s nazi dictatorship.
Get fucked you anti freedom piece of trash.
Speculation and ad hominem. Yep, that’s a typical Biden supporter right here, no sound arguments as always :)
Nazism mention is especially funny though, you do know that it is current Ukrainian government that support Nazis? Like real Nazis, not just “I use Nazi word even though I don’t know what it actually means”
I’m not a Biden supporter, I just hate child raping traitor felons.
No they don’t support them. That’s a common lie spread by the enemies of the free world. So now we know EXACTLY who you are.
I’m not a Biden supporter
Weird, but ok.
I just hate child raping traitor felons.
Accusation without proof, again.
No they don’t support them.
LMAO.
Well, here is a compilation of links you might find interesting ;)
https://lemmy.libertarianfellowship.org/post/2451/12269
Here’s wikipedia article about the famous Azov Brigade (Ukrainian heroes!): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Brigade
Here’s wikipedia article about Stepan Bandera: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera, that guy is glorified in Ukraine, we rename streets after this hero ;)
Here’s wikipedia article about Yaroslav Hunka, another Ukrainian hero: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaroslav_Hunka_scandal
All very interesting articles I’m sure you will enjoy reading. Is wikipedia the enemy of the free world as well now? ;)
So now we know EXACTLY who you are.
And who EXACTLY am I? Enemy of the free world? Well, that is unfortunate that me posting the truth backed by sources (as compared to your baseless accusations and ad hominem) makes you feel like that :\
Oh I know all about azov brigade. Where was it that president Zelinsky endorsed them again? That’s what I thought.
Btw, for your reading pleasure - you traitor supporting child rapist lover.
Fifteen women have now gone on record to say that Donald Trump sexually assaulted them. Out of all of their stories, one is the most explosive and bizarre — a woman who says Trump violently raped her at an orgy when she was just 13 years old. But the horrific details of her accusation have gotten the least attention.
It seemed like that was all going to change Wednesday, when the woman, who has gone by the pseudonyms “Katie Johnson” and “Jane Doe,” was set to appear at a press conference at the law offices of Lisa Bloom, a high-profile civil rights attorney and TV commentator. But the woman didn’t come to the press conference. Bloom told a room full of waiting reporters that Johnson was afraid to show her face after receiving multiple death threats, and that they would have to reschedule.
The lawsuit alleged a number of charges against both Trump and Epstein, including rape, sexual abuse, assault and battery, and false imprisonment. Johnson said that when she was 13, Epstein lured her to parties at his apartment by promising “money and a modeling career.”
Johnson said Trump had sexual contact with her at four of those parties, including tying her to a bed and violently raping her in a “savage sexual attack.” The lawsuit said Johnson “loudly pleaded” with Trump to stop, but that he responded by “violently striking Plaintiff in the face with his open hand and screaming that he would do whatever he wanted.”
After that, Trump allegedly threatened to harm or kill Johnson and her family if she ever told anyone. Johnson said Trump told her he could make them “disappear” like Maria — a 12-year-old girl Johnson says Trump also forced her to have sexual contact with, and whom Johnson hadn’t seen since that encounter.
Johnson also accused Epstein of raping her “anally and vaginally despite her loud pleas to stop,” and that he “attempted to strike Plaintiff about the head with his closed fists while he angrily screamed that he, Defendant Epstein, rather than Defendant Trump, should have been the one who took Plaintiff’s virginity.”
The court filings also included a statement from “Tiffany Doe,” another anonymous woman, who said that she witnessed the rapes and procured the young girls for the parties, and “Joan Doe,” a classmate of the victim who said she was told about the rapes during the following school year. Tiffany Doe said that Epstein and Trump knew that Johnson was 13.
